Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions
Gold Price Now:
USD
$2,609.48
+16.50
+0.64%
Recent Changes
| Period | 2 Days | 3 Days | 1 Week | 2 Weeks | 1 Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change | +1.82% | +1.82% | -0.28% | -4.59% | -4.11% |
Gold Price Forecasts - Analyst Predictions
Gold-Eagle has been analyzing gold markets and publishing gold price forecasts for over 23 years. Our staff and contributing analysts include world reknowned precious metal experts and market analysts. The gold price forecast data below represents the average predictions of a diverse panel of expert gold market analysts. Their assessments of gold price trends are based on a variety of methods including: expert technical analysis, market fundamentals, current market sentiment, and an analysis of global economic and political events. Bookmark and/or link to this page to check back every week. Updated every Monday am.
Last Updated: October 22, 2024
Gold Forecast Short Term
Bullish
Price Drivers for next 6 weeks:
Dollar, elections, Federal Reserve policyGold Forecast 1 Year
Bullish: $3,200
Medium-term price drivers:
US dollar, bear market in stocks and recession, investor sentimentGold Forecast 3 Years
Bullish: $4,825
Long-term price drivers:
US dollar, US budget deficits, central bank monetary debasement, negative real interest rates, and the potential for an uptick in sovereign buying.Featured Gold Price Forecasts
From the comments made in my prior articles, Gold was in mid-term topping range, and with that was at risk to a larger-degree price decline. That decline phase is now in full force with the action in recent weeks, and should have more to run before forming the next key bottom.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The 72-day cycle is the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown again on the chart below:
From my 10/27/24 article: "The next larger swing top has been expected to come from this 72-day cycle - which is well into extended range for its peak to form. Once this wave does top, then the downside 'risk' - and ideal price magnet - will be back to the 72-day moving average. However, based upon the position of our 310-day wave, the probabilities are good that the next peak for the 72-day wave will also top the larger cycle."
As mentioned above, our 72-day cycle was into extended range for a peak - with its most recent upward phase able to hold up into pre-presidential election. From there...
Last week, I wrote Gold Could Collapse or Challenge $3000 in November. This week's election results support the former, and the odds now favor a pullback in gold to its 200-day MA (currently $2,400).
- Trump secured the election, winning the key swing states and taking the popular vote.
- The Republicans took the Senate and should preserve a slim majority in the House.
- These election results were the most bearish for gold (over the medium term) but will become bullish over time.
Gold's Breakdown
The market response to Trump's victory is reminiscent of 2016: gold prices fell sharply, accompanied by a surging dollar and rising 10-year yields. If the analog holds, metals and miners could remain under pressure into mid-December.
However, it's important to note that when Trump won in 2016, Fed funds were between 0.25% and 0.50%, and the Fed just started a hiking cycle. Fed funds are much higher today, and the Fed is cutting. So, I don't expect things to play out exactly as before.
It's also important to note that in 2016, gold was at the tail end of a multi-year bear market. This time, the gold bull market is just starting - fueled by record central bank buying that is likely to continue into the foreseeable future....
More Gold Price Forecasts
Gold formed a swing high after reaching our $2,800 target, and a pullback is overdue. Given the election outcome and next week's Fed announcement, prices could go either way in November. If gold corrects, the initial drop could be sharp, followed by sideways trading...
From my prior articles, Gold is back in mid-term topping range, and with that is at risk to a larger-degree decline phase in the coming months. Having said that, this decline has yet to be confirmed in force, though we are keeping a close watch on the current price...
Gold is nearing our $2,800 target, with the potential for further gains into year-end. Historically, during the last two Fed rate-cutting cycles, gold surged approximately 40% following the initial cut. If this pattern holds, gold could reach $3,500 next year.
Gold is climbing steadily and could hit $2,800 before the elections. Silver is on the verge of a significant breakout that may drive prices toward $38.00. Trump is ahead in key swing states, specifically Pennsylvania, which Elon Musk has greatly assisted.
From my prior articles, the last good swing low for Gold came from our 72-day time cycle, which formed its bottom back in early-June. With that, this wave - as well as the mid-term 310-day cycle - is well into topping range, and with that is looking for a sharp...
Physical gold is no longer cheap. When I began publishing for Gold Eagle in late-2015, physical gold was trading near $1,100 per ounce. It had been declining for four years, following the September 2011 peak at $1,920 per ounce. No one wanted it.
The ECB cut rates by .25% Thursday, trimming growth expectations for 2024 and beyond. Gold futures exploded through resistance near $2,560, confirming a breakout with a medium-term price target near $2,800.
From my prior articles, the last key low for Gold came with the bottoming of our 72-day cycle - made back in early-June. From there, the analysis called for strength into the late-July timeframe or beyond, before looking for indications of the next mid-term peak...
From my prior articles, we expected the last key low for Gold to form into the late-May to early-June timeframe - a move which was expected to end up as a countertrend affair. From there, the analysis called for new all-time highs to be seen into the late-July...
Gold Price Forecast FAQ
How do you forecast the price of gold?
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
What are the key factors for long term gold forecasts?
When forecasting what may happen to the price of gold longer term, there are many things to consider including economic trends, the impact of current and expected monetary policy, QE, debt monetization, and the aggregate impact on future currency valuation.
Does the price of gold go up when the stock market goes down?
The price of gold is often negatively correlated to the stock markets. When the markets go down, gold prices usually go up. However, this is not always true. Sometimes the price of gold and stocks both go up and down in unison. Fundamental factors play an important role and need to be carefully analyzed. Historically, however, the price of gold is not tied to the fluctuations of stock and bonds. This is one of the chief reasons when one should have gold in their portfolio – to protect the long-term value of your investments.
Does the value of the US dollar predict the price of gold?
As gold is traditionally quoted in US dollars, the price of gold is negatively correlated to the strength of the USD. The weaker the US dollar, the cheaper it is to purchase gold. Therefore, if economic factors predict a strengthening of the US dollar then this will tend to drop the price of gold, and vice-versa. According to the statistics (since 1973), the long-term correlation between the U.S. dollar index and the gold prices is -0.6 so this link is quite strong.
How do US interest rates impact future gold prices?
The level of US interest rates is an important driver of future gold prices. When investing in gold, the investor is faced with the opportunity cost of gold - a non-interest bearing asset. The higher the US interest rate for holding US dollars or investing in Treasuries, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is more likely, therefore, that a rally in the price of gold will be forecasted the lower the US benchmark interest rate.
Gold Forecast Analysts
Technical Analysis Expert & Editor @ GoldPredict.com
AG Thorson is a registered CMT through the MTA and an recognized expert in technical analysis of the precious metals markets. He is also the Editor of GoldPredict.com where members receive daily updates and regularly scheduled reports 3-days a w More...
Chief Analyst & Founder @ iGold Advisor
Christopher Aaron began his career as an intelligence analyst for the CIA and Department of Defense. He served two tours to Afghanistan and Iraq between 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern-of-life mapping for military leaders.Mapping shares similarities More...
CFA, Editor & Founder @ Sunshine Profits
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, is the founder, owner and the main editor of SunshineProfits.com. You can reach Przemyslaw at: http://www.sunshineprofits.com/help/contact-us/. More...
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