2024 Recession Indicator to Watch
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The signal is a steepening yield curve driven by a decline in the 2-year yield. This has preceded or coincided with nearly all recent market declines and recessions.
There are a few examples of the 2-year yield declining but then making a lower high amid an over-bullish stock market. The market then declines considerably after the lower high.
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Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets. He is also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold’s Secular Bull Market which is available for free. TheDailyGold.com was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs by DailyReckoning and WalletHub.
