Are They Tired Enough?

We talked yesterday about the upcoming G-20 finance meeting, I said I believed it would not be "benign".  Many readers have questioned why and to paraphrase "rarely has the G-20 made important announcements or decisions, why would they do this now"?  We'll get to this shortly.

I believe the global finance system is coming to a very rapid head and many major participants are displeased with using the U.S. dollar.  At the very top of this list is China.  Quietly China has announced http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/pboc-s-ma-sees-stable-yuan-as-peg-shifts-to-basket-from-dollar and commented further they no longer plan on strictly pegging the yuan to the dollar.  Instead they plan to peg their currency to a basket of other currencies.  They have indicated they do not plan to devalue the yuan as markets worldwide were selling off on this fear. 

Are the Chinese being truthful?  I believe they are speaking out of both sides of their mouth but can support either case, let me explain.  If you will notice, many foreign currencies are trading near lows versus gold (the equivalent of being devalued).  Another way to say this is gold is trading close to all time highs in many various currencies.  For the yuan to be pegged to these depreciating currencies would mean the yuan will simply go with the flow so to speak and trade down against gold.  On the other hand, we have the trade versus the dollar.  In this case the yuan has stalled its gradual strengthening and has instead weakened.  This move to change the peg by the Chinese has giant implications but very little has been said in the press to this point. 

Another piece of news yesterday, the Chinese are buying U.S. companies at a record pace  China is buying up American companies fast, and it's freaking people out .  These deals are all reported in dollars and I would assume dollars are being used for purchase.  This would amount to what we have talked about for a long time, "selling dollars for stuff"!  It is said this action is scaring people, maybe so but can you imagine what would happen should the Chinese be told "no, you cannot use your dollars to buy U.S. companies"?

Tying this together, I just wanted to point out China is the clear leader in the G-20, they are now admitted as part of the SDR basket, their forex reserves have been dropping (they are said to be defending the yuan, are they?), they are spending dollars on "stuff" and foreign companies ...and they no longer want to peg the yuan directly to the dollar?  (Just as a reminder, they are also the largest buyer of gold on the planet).

Now, let’s fast forward to next Monday and the aftermath of the G-20.  It is obvious there are huge stresses both economically and financially on a globe wide basis.  Has the rest of the world "had enough"?  Are they tired of being forced to settle in a currency that is now artificially strong due to synthetics yet freely printed by a nation increasingly viewed as the world's bully?  I would definitely say the answer is yes they are.  The next question is; "ARE THEY TIRED ENOUGH"? 

To put it bluntly, the world, I don't know the answer to this but I do know this upcoming G-20 meeting is a potential platform for massive change.  Were the world to turn their backs collectively on the dollar, what would it accomplish?  First, we would see a massive devaluation in the dollar and an easing of the synthetic dollar short squeeze.  It would also serve to "defund" the bully's military ability ...at exactly the same time it looks like U.S. so called allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia are set to invade Syria. 

If you recall last fall, I think we were even given a tip off to something like this happening.  A meeting between President Xi, the Pope and president Obama ended with sound bites of "wealth equality" around the world.  What do you suppose they meant by this?  They told us the financial and economic world would re set, they just didn't tell us when.  This upcoming G-20 finance meeting may be nothing at all or it may be the big one!  Either way, it is certainly a convenient and may I say "likely" stage as it will be held in China!

To finish, whether it is this weekend or not, a re set is coming and this will mean a redistribution of wealth.  The world has moved down the rabbit hole of Alice in Wonderland, a re set will bring us back to reality and standards of living will be grossly changed.  What is viewed as "wealth" currently will drastically change for generations to come! 

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration