The Case Against One Last, Vicious Shakedown In Gold

Is gold headed below $1000?  I doubt it. Like every other bullion investor who has tired of watching gold’s price meander sideways for nearly six years, I’ve grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated. But also concerned, as many apparently are, that one last, hellish plunge may be necessary to shake out the weak hands. However, looking at the long-term chart, I’m persuaded that bulls still have the edge, if not a big one. That’s because the ‘impulsive’ leap gold took between October 2008 and August 2011 was so powerful, pushing the price of an ounce from $680 to $1912. Although the subsequent retracement took 70% of it back with the $1046 low that occurred in December 2015, bears have been challenged ever since to win the skirmishes that prefigure changes in the long-term trend.

By my analysis, gold ‘should have’ fallen to $821 at its correction low.  It could still get there, and that target will remain valid in any event until such time as 1432.50 is exceeded to the upside. But there is nothing in the chart that implies bulls are going to give up that much ground. To the contrary, they took a shot across bears’ bow with a $328 thrust in 2016 that tripped a theoretical long-term ‘buy’ signal at the green line (see inset).  The move exceeded no fewer than four ‘external’ peaks on the daily chart, and that’s why the bad guys have struggled so hard to push gold back down. They may be able to crush the spirit of bulls, and to do so repeatedly. But this is not the same as crushing prior lows that continue to provide ‘structural’ and psychological support on the long-term charts.

Set An Alert At 1208

If you want a warning signal that the tide could be turning in bears’ favor, simply watch for downtrends that exceed two or more prior lows on the monthly chart without a significant correction. At the moment, that would imply a sell-off exceeding 1208.60.  Even that wouldn’t necessarily mean gold is headed below $1000 — only that we should be especially mindful of downtrending abcd patterns on the lesser charts that start to exceed their ‘d’ targets. That would be warning that the bear is gaining the upper hand. We should also watch for ABCD uptrends that fail to reach their targets. This has actually been happening, and it needs to be monitored. But the effect is not so pronounced as to suggest any more than chronic-but-not-fatal fatigue on bulls’ part.  One more thing concerning the big picture:  Gold would need to push above 1662 to suggest that a move to the 2278 target is likely. That is a midpoint Hidden Pivot, and unless 1046 is exceeded to the downside, it will remain crucial to price action in the months or even years ahead.

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