Countdown To Mediocrity

With a mere twenty-six days to the election of the “leader of the free world”, the richest, most powerful country in human history, financial markets are noticeably apprehensive as to outcome and understandably concerned with the reaction of the two deeply-divided camps. With the ANTIFA and BLM “movements” mobilizing to disrupt at every turn, their ideological opponents carry little in the way of monikers but are passionately anti-BLM and anti-ANTIFA and even more passionately “pro-American”, a descriptive often marching shoulder-to-shoulder with paramilitary and/or white supremist groups.

The sad part of this misunderstood and misreported conflict is that the 1% elite empowered by the politicians and the bankers that support them (the “banco-politico cartel”) would have us all believe that this conflict is the ultimate showdown between the conservative forces of law-and-order and the socialist forces of anarchy.

The stark reality is that the vast majority of the 99% that make up the unentitled non-elite whose role has been to act as doormats, upon which the 1% wipe their shoes, have finally had enough. It started with globalization which shut down the manufacturing core of U.S. industry and shipped their jobs off to China and Mexico culminating in a global pandemic that saw the politico-banco cartel once again enriched massively with massive bailouts and liquidity injections resulting in all-time highs in stock prices, all this occurring while the jobs of the working classes (the “doormats”) were not simply transferred; they were terminated.

I put forth the notion that civil unrest in the U.S. is anything but “ideological” and totally “apolitical”; it is the result of a systemic abuse of the rights of literally everyone not invited into the “club” – the one to which legendary comedian George Carlin referred when he coined the line: “It is one big club (the elite) and guess what? You ain’t in it!”. All you need to do is go back and watch “The Big Short” the movie based upon Michael Lewis’ best seller that chronicled the biggest rip-off of taxpayer capital in history. While Andrew Ross Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail” glamourized the bankers led by Bernanke and the cast of criminals led by Treasury Secretary (ex-Goldman Sacks) Hank Paulson, the Lewis book lifted up the Wall Street banker’s carpet, revealing a vast network of evils far in excess of anything the MSM would report. Once you have grasped the contrast between the two versions of the Great Financial Bailout of 2008, you come away with a sense that this is one “club” unlikely to issue us any invites.

Here in the autumn of presidential election year 2020, we watch the American electorate caught in a crossfire of special interest bullets being showered upon them by the machine gun media whose contrasting messages are 100% correlated to the individuals or conglomerates that own that media, be it nouveau-riche newspaper barons or the compromised moguls that own cable news. Similarly bombarded by data bombs of varying interpretation and diverse agendas, the poor investor class is getting fed a load of conflicting malarkey that would have them accept two divergent assumptions:

• The U.S. economy is in a V-shaped recovery as evidence the performance of the NASDAQ and other stock market barometers, or

• The U.S. economy is in dire need of another massive, multi-trillion-dollar stimulus package to “rescue” the average American worker.

In case you have not yet noticed, those two assumptions are contradictory. Any economy being described as “recovering” does not need stimulus. What the politico-banco cartel wants is to once again be the portal through which the government debt is channeled down to the “average American” because when you are the guy in the booth at the tollgate, you get your toll regardless of where the drivers go. Bankers are the middlemen that luxuriate in the splendor of legalized and legitimized counterfeiting. What percentage of every dollar of stimulus that winds up in the reserve accounts of the member banks is unknown but if it were zero, the bankers would not take the job because bankers do not work for free. “Pro-bono” is not in the banker vocabulary.

From an investment standpoint, I continue to believe that the forces of intervention and interference are hard at work in the capital markets arena on the assumption that a Trump victory will be a distinct preference over Biden when it comes to friendly-versus-hostile attitudes toward the financial industry. Accordingly, a booming stock market and subdued precious metals will be viewed as beneficial to the Trump cause. The handlers all believe that “Optics are everything” in the final days before elections and incumbent presidents want to know that their Wall Street campaign donors are “on it”. Judging from the miraculous recovery by the POTUS from his COVID-19 bout, stocks were given a perfect cover story with which to assault all-time highs by November 3rd. That is the assumption I have made, and it is one shrouded in cynicism and cradled in revulsion. There is nary a day that goes by that GATA Co-founder Chris Powell’s now-famous line fails to resonate loudly: “There are no free markets anymore; there are only interventions.” Were that it be untrue can only be a whim for the terminally naive.

I have taken only one investment posture into the final weeks of the most heavily polarized election campaign in U.S. history with the 2020 election being second only to the election of 1860 where the major issue was slavery. The outcome of the 1860 election resulted in the cataclysmic American Civil War and while Hollywood has bestowed saintliness upon many of the cast and characters of the era, it was the darkest moment in U.S. history and resulted in mayhem, destruction, and loss of life unprecedented in U.S. history. One-hundred and sixty years ago, racial issues dominated the political landscapes and here in 2020, racial issues once again front and centre.]. In an environment where the term “depression” is now used far more commonly than the CNBC colour commentators would prefer, the investment posture that is most suitable for the times can only be one that prepares for the loss of purchasing power of one’s savings. I am avoiding cash wherever possible and I remain overweight precious metals on the assumption that regardless of outcome, the fiscal and monetary bubble machine will remain active. As long as the leaders of the world’s largest debtor nation continue to throw inflationary gasoline on the fires of insolvency and uncontrolled debt, gold and silver will protect one’s wealth over stocks, bonds, and (God forbid) cash.

The “line-in-the-sand” for gold bullion is now USD $1,862 which is also the 100-day moving average around which prices have been clinging for the better part of the past three years. While event-driven declines are rare, the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crash created generational buying opportunities but what I find interesting is that IF the recent 11.4% plunge to $1,850 was the extent of the correction and comparable to the March decline of 14.9%, and IF the ensuing rebound of 44.5% was the March-August gain, a similar September-May rebound of that magnitude will take prices to USD $2,673.

The charts shown below give you both upside target prices (in the first chart) and the suggested stop-loss point (in the second chart); a 2-day close under the 100-day moving average would invite a move down to the $1,725 level and the gold miners would not be immune.

We ended out the week in superb shape as the precious metals turned higher with gold reclaiming USD $1,935 and silver almost USD $25. The stage is now set for a strong year-end advance…but only if gold can clear the 50-dma at USD $1,950 and silver comfortably above USD $26.

We shall see...

Disclaimer

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

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