Cycles For Gold And USD

Did gold find a Trading Cycle Low last Friday?  Perhaps. Silver was definitely leading the way as it often does at bottoms.  But silver also delivers many head-fakes and with the USD is due for a new Trading Cycle bounce, gold will likely move lower next week.

My first chart on the USD, shows it is deep in its timing band to find a DCL or short term Trading Cycle Low. Thursday may well have been the TC Low I was looking for.  If so, to confirm a new Trading Cycle the USD should close above the 10ema and then test/break my Red down trend cycle line.

I also show the USD in deep in its timing band to start its move into its next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL).  If I am correct, the USD should top quickly to form a H&S pattern before moving into its next ICL.  Next week’s trigger points for a cycle turn are the FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

If the USD does bounce at least into the FOMC on Wed, then Gold and the PM Complex will likely move to a lower low next week, perhaps testing the 50% Fib level at 1172 (62% is at 1161).  Gold is on day 28, however, and towards the later stages of its normal timing band to find a DCL or TC Low as well.  And it I am correct that the USD will move into its longer IC Low, then gold and PMs, should have a very bullish second Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low in December.

Courtesy of https://surfcity.co/category/gold/