Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, S&P500 And GDX

Gold

Short-Term Update

 

The 1335.70 low made in yesterday’s overnight session held in yesterday’s day session - and in the last overnight session. Gold rallied to a high of 1347.40 at the time that this Post was being written.       

Our wave $b$ triangle formation is still valid…and we are now likely rallying in our last leg up within this triangle. This will complete all of the wave $b$ triangle. For this triangle to remain valid we cannot now rally above the 1363.80 high.

It is still possible that all of our wave $b$ triangle ended at the 1361.40 high as shown on the above Daily Gold Chart. Upon completion of our wave $b$ triangle we expect a sharp wave $c$ thrust lower that is expected to reach our minimum target of 1310.70. On the Daily Gold Chart we have shown our 50 to 61.8% retracement levels for our wave !ii! count.  

Upon completion of wave $ii$ we expect a very sharp wave $iii$ rally, as the next big event in this market, moving gold well above $1400, to $1442 and maybe to $1516.

Our updated count for wave *v* is:

^i^ = 1318.90;

^ii^ =1252.50. 

^iii^:

!i! = 1377.50;

!ii!:

$a$ = 1310.70:

$b$ triangle = 1361.40, if complete;

$c$ is still underway with a minimum target of 1310.70, to complete all of wave !ii!.

!iii! rally is next after wave !ii! ends.

Our current projections for the end of wave ^iii^ of *v* as follows:

^iii^ = 1.618^ = 1442.80

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1516.20

Longer-Term Update

 

Gold is near the major red downtrend line shown on the attached Long Term Gold Chart, which the bears are trying to defend.  A break and close above that line would likely see gold move sharply higher. Based on the current count, gold is still working on its first impulsive sequence out of its wave (2) of 3 low, and we still have a little way to go before this sequence is complete.

Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions with Puts at 1250!

S&P500 

Short-Term Update:

 

The S&P500 was generally stable in yesterdays’ day session. Then in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 5 points at the time that this post is being written.

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave .iii. is complete at the 2193.81 high or are we still moving higher within wave .iii..

On the attached 120 Min S&P Chart we have shown a possible path for wave .iv., if it is now underway.  Wave *a* would have ended at 2168.50 and we now waiting for the completion of our corrective wave *b* triangle.

Upon completion of our wave *b* triangle we expect one more drop in wave *c* to possibly complete all of wave .iv.. Wave .iv. could become more complex than just one simple 3 pattern also.

We will continue to hold our long positions, through the wave .iv. correction.   

Long-Term Update

Wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 1946.70 high; wave -ii- at 1891.00, and wave -iii- at 2111.05. Wave -iv- looks to be complete at the 1991.62 low. Consequently, we now expect one more rally in wave -v- to new record highs, and from there we expect an “endgame” type meltdown to below the 2009 lows to take shape.

Active Trading Positions: Long with 2150 puts as stops.

GDX

Short-Term Update:

The GDX was lower in yesterdays’ trading as we have now satisfied our minimum retracements level with the drop to 29.30.

Since we still expect gold to drop back to the 1310 level we should expect some further losses in the GDX, before all of wave *ii* ends.  

Upon completion of wave *ii* we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii*, as the next big event in this market.     

Our current count for count for all of wave iii is:

(i) = 27.03;

(ii) = 24.80;

(iii):

-i- = 30.73;

-ii- = 27.45;

-iii-:

*i* = 31.64;

*ii*= 29.30, if complete;

*iii* rally is next after wave *ii* ends.

Projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 37.79.

Long-Term Update:

We have now started to rally in a subdividing wave (iii) of iii, which should see the GDX at least reach the 37.79 level before it ends.

We also have much higher projections also. Wave -iii-of (iii) of iii is usually the most powerful wave in an impulsive sequence. Our (iii)=4.236(i) projection is 45.81.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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