GOLD Echoes of 1970s
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Everyone involved in the gold market knows about the great 70's gold bull market and how it climaxed with a vertical spike. I have on numerous occasions written that, because of the exponential explosion in the growth of credit, derivatives and the money supply, which dwarfs that of the 70's, the current gold bull market will similarly go on to dwarf that of the 70's. Relative to where it's going, it's barely started yet. If hyperinflation develops then clearly the gains in gold will be of astronomic proportions.
But even if we take a 70's type scenario for the gold bull market as a "bottom of the range" guideline as to what to expect, it follows that we can look forward to very substantial gains in the time ahead. With this in mind I present a most interesting chart that shows the current bull market overlaid on the 70's bull market. I am sure that I don't need to point out to readers the uncanny parallel that exists between these two price tracks. If this similarity continues then we can expect to see a rapid increase in the rate of rise as the year unfolds. After that, however, these charts should part company, as the far more serious fundamental problems of the present time are expected to drive gold to much higher levels than were attained in the 70's.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis
Kaufbeuren, Germany, 21st January 2004
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Clive P. Maund’s interest in markets started when, as an aimless youth searching for direction in his mid-20’s, he inherited some money. Unfortunately it was not enough to live a utopian lifestyle as a playboy or retire very young. Therefore on the advice of his brother, he bought a load of British Petroleum stock, which promptly went up 20% in the space of a few weeks. Clive sold them at the top…which really fired his imagination. The prospect of being able to buy securities and sell them later at a higher price, and make money for doing little or no work was most attractive – and so the quest began, especially as he had been further stoked up by watching from the sidelines with a mixture of fascination and envy as fortunes were made in the roaring gold and silver bull market of the late 70’s.
Clive furthered his education in Technical Analysis or charting by ordering various good books from the US and by applying what he learned at work on an everyday basis. He also obtained the UK Society of Technical Analysts’ Diploma.
The years following 2005 saw the boom phase of the Gold and Silver bull market, until they peaked in late 2011. While there is ongoing debate about whether that was the final high, it is not believed to be because of the continuing global debasement of fiat currency. The bear market since 2011 is viewed as being very similar to the 2-year reaction in the mid-70’s, which was preceded by a powerful advance and was followed by a gigantic parabolic price ramp. Moreover, Precious Metals should come back into their own when the various asset bubbles elsewhere burst, which looks set to happen anytime soon.
Visit Clive at his website: CliveMaund.com
