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Gold Forecast: Gold Cycles Mixed Near-Term

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader

December 23, 2024

gold season In light of the recent market action, I wanted to post another update on the Gold cycles positioning - which are offering up a mixed picture, near-term.

Gold's 72-Day Cycle

The 72-day cycle is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown on the chart below:

From the comments made in past articles, the downward phase of this 72-day cycle was seen as in force - which took prices back to our 72-day moving average and the lower 72-day cycle band, a normal expectation.

Later, the low for this 72-day cycle was confirmed to have been made in mid-November, and with that the upward phase of this wave was favored to push higher into January - though the move is expected to end up as countertrend - against the 2825.90 (February, 2025 contract) swing top, made back in October.

Stepping back then, another try at a rally into January - if seen - would peak our 72-day cycle, if that peak has not already formed. In other words, I see some potential for the high for this wave to have been registered at the 2761.30 swing top, though a hard re-test of that number could still play out in the coming weeks.

As mentioned, the overall assumption has been that the upward phase of our 72-day component would end up as countertrend, against the 2825.90 swing top. That peak is seen as our last peak for the bigger 310-day component, which is shown again on the chart below:

In terms of time, this larger 310-day cycle is ideally pushing south into the Spring of next year - before bottoming Gold in what looks to be a larger countertrend affair. In terms of price, the downside 'risk' is to the 310-day moving average - currently at the 2399 figure and rising, and is obviously well below current price levels

That same 310-day moving average is also seen as a key level of mid-term support for the yellow metal, with the same also being at or near the rising (extrapolated) lower four-year cycle channel, shown in red.

As mentioned above, the current correction phase of this 310-day cycle is expected to end up as countertrend. If correct, what follows should be the major rally of 2025 playing out in the months to follow, with more precise details posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader market report.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/