Gold Forecast: Gold Makes All Time High Expecting Bank Failures

The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past.

A $1 billion capital injection saved New York Community Bancorp mid-week; was that enough to arrest its decline? 

Lagarde signals the ECB may cut rates in June, and Powell emphasizes cuts "at some point this year."

Banking Crisis Update

• Monday will mark the one-year anniversary of last year's banking crisis and collapse of SVB.
• This year New York Community Bank is center stage with a deeply underwater (rent controlled) loan book.
• Wednesday's panic ceased, for now, but if deposits flee (bank run), NYCB could be in deep trouble next week.

NYCB DAILY

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) was down 45% intraday Wednesday as trading halted pending news. Thirty minutes earlier, NYCB announced it was seeking capital to shore up its balance sheet.

A $1 billion rescue package was announced around 2:30 PM, and prices rallied into the close. According to banking expert Chris Whalen, the $1 billion capital injection is likely insufficient, and a number closer to $10 billion is needed.

Precious Metals & Mining Update

GOLD WEEKLY- Unless something dramatically changes, we have a weekly breakout in gold. A 50% rally succeeded a similar breakout in 2019.

GOLD DAILY- Gold is finally breaking above $2100, and I believe we are in the initial stages of a powerful multi-month rally.

Expect increased volatility and gut-wrenching corrections along the way. This cycle should press to the upside into late April or early May.

SILVER- Silver often lags gold at the beginning of a cycle and plays catchup towards the end. Consequently, the real fireworks may start in April. Getting above $26.00 is essential.

PLATINUM— We have progressive closes above the 50-day EMA and a cycle bottom. Next, prices must conquer the $1000 level to ignite more upside.

AU- Anglogold Ashanti has broken free from its rounded bottom, supporting a breakout across gold miners.

GDX-Gold miners have gapped higher for six consecutive opens. We have a cycle low, but prices must transcend $32.50 to attract more upside.

GDXJ- The level to beat in juniors is $40.00. Once we clear that, things could get exciting.

SILJ- Silver juniors need to best the $10.60 level to confirm a critical breakout.

S&P 500- Stocks made a new closing high, quickly reversing Tuesday's gap. The market continues unabated, and the trend is deeply overbought.

Conclusion

The next big surge in gold has started, and sub-$2000 pricing may be a thing of the past. Gold miners are stupid cheap and should play catch up in the coming months. 

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For daily market updates, consider subscribing www.GoldPredict.com.

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