Gold Forecast: Markets Crashing into Spring Cycle Low

With the action seen in recent weeks, the U.S. stock market is declining into an expected Spring cycle bottom, with Gold now joining in the decline. Each of these markets appear to have further to run before troughing, though we are into the window for a key bottom to form for U.S. stocks, which we will look at first.

U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term

As mentioned back in January of this year, the mid-term cycles for the U.S. stock market were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region - before topping, and giving way to a sharp decline into this Spring.

The mid-term cycles for U.S. stocks are the 180 and 360-day waves, with the smaller 180-day cycle shown on the chart below, along with the S&P 500 index:

In terms of time, the next projected trough for our 180-day wave was due around mid- April of this year, but with a larger plus or minus variance in either direction - simply due to the size of the 180 and 360-day cycles.

In terms of technical action, of particular note were the divergences between price and our 180-day detrend, as well as with our 180-day 'oversold' indicator - which can be a key measure of momentum for the SPX (i.e., S&P 500 index). These were warning signals that a sharp correction was brewing, which we have obviously seen.

As mentioned in prior articles, following my rule that a cycle will take prices back to a moving average of the same length about 85% of the time, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in U.S. stocks would take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average on the SPX - which has been met on the current decline.

Having said the above, in our daily/weekly Market Turns reports (which track the U.S. stock market), we mentioned further downside 'risk' being to the lower 360-day moving average, simply due to the position of our larger 360-day time cycle, shown below:

In looking at our 360-day cycle, the detrend that tracks this wave was also showing a divergence at the February peak - which was a technical warning sign, due to the time position of this wave, which was next projected to trough into mid-April.

In a recent daily Market Turns report, we mentioned that taking out the 5504.65 SPX CASH figure to the downside would favor a drop on down to the 360-day moving average, which was seen - and which has been decisively taken out.

With the above said and noted, the next low of significance is expected to come from the combination of 180 and 360-day waves in U.S. stocks, which are projected to bottom around this mid-April window, though this could easily push out into early-May, due to the larger plus or minus variance in either direction.

Shown again below is a combination forecast, with the 180 and 360-day cycles:

Adding to the notes above, there are key technical signs that we track, with one of these being very rare - and which is shown on the next chart:

The above chart shows our market 'panic' indicator, which we originally introduced back in the Autumn of 2023. This indicator moves inverse to price action, and a buy signal is generated when it spikes above its upper reference line.

Going further with the above, the last buy signal with this market panic indicator came back on October 26th of 2023. This signal came within one trading day of the last major low in U.S. stocks, doing so at the 4137.23 SPX CASH figure. This was followed by an almost 50% advance, into the most recent high of 6147.43.

Signals with this market 'panic' indicator are not triggered often - with none generated in 2024. With the current decline, it will be key if a new buy signal should be triggered in the days/weeks ahead - which we will be watching with keen interest in our daily Market Turns report.

Stepping back further, once the next 180 and 360-day trough is in place on the SPX, the probabilities will favor a sharp rally of some 17-20% or more playing out in the months to follow, with more precise details of how this will unfold noted in our daily and weekly Market Turns reports.

Gold Cycle Update

For the short-term picture for Gold, as mentioned in my last article from 3/23/25, the 10 and 20-day cycles were headed lower, though a move which was anticipated to end up as countertrend - to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up.

Here is the smaller 10-day wave in the Gold market:

As mentioned, the last 10-day cycle downward phase was expected to end up as a countertrend affair, to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up - which we did see. That rally took Gold up to a high of 3201.60 for the June, 2025 contract.

Going further with the above, at the most recent peak, Gold was on the lookout for another short-term correction with our 10-day wave, which was confirmed to be in force with the reversal below the 3128.00 figure (June, 2025 contract).

With the above said and noted, the metal has seen a decline of nearly 100 points through our downside reversal point of 3128.00, an action which favors the downward phase of our larger 34-day cycle to be back in force.

Shown below is that 34-day cycle in Gold:

Going further with the above, taking out the 3031.00 figure (June, 2025 contract) to the downside will favor even more short-term weakness with this 34-day wave, which is next projected to trough around mid-to-late April.

With the above said and noted, we expect the next swing low to form with our 34-day wave in Gold, into the mid-to-late April window, before turning higher again into May - with our larger 72-day cycle, which is shown again on the chart below:

With the recent decline, there is some potential for our 72-day cycle to have topped, though this has yet to be confirmed. With that, the ideal path is looking for only a countertrend correction with the smaller 34-day cycle, before turning back to make another stab at the highs - before actually peaking this 72-day component.

Stepping back further, once the 72-day wave does top out, then the probabilities will favor a bigger percentage decline into what looks to be late-June, plus or minus.

In terms of price, the 72-day moving average should act as the magnet to the next correction phase of our 72-day wave into June, though with the potential for a larger decline to unfold, due to the extended position of our bigger 310-day cycle:

This larger 310-day cycle sets the direction for the mid-term trend in Gold prices, with the current upward phase of this wave seen as very extended. This wave was originally projected to trough this Spring, though with the detrend now projecting it to bottom out around the late-June window - which is where our next 72-day trough is also due.

For the bigger view, the next mid-term buy for Gold should come at or near the lower four-year cycle channel (in red) and/or the 310-day moving average. Having said that, a drop back to that range could come from higher highs first, such as with our 72-day wave into May - following the completion of the current short-term decline phase with the smaller 34-day component; stay tuned.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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