Gold Price Forecast: April Peak May Trigger a Sharp Decline in May

Gold surged past $3,200 in April, as forecasted, and signs point to a significant top forming.

Our cycle analysis projected a peak between April 16 and April 23, with prices seemingly topping out on April 22 after hitting $3,500.

We now expect a sharp, multi-month decline of at least 20%—a move that could be swift and jarring, especially for those unprepared.

Gold Peaks After Stocks

A few weeks back, I noted that gold tends to rally into a recession, typically after the stock market has already topped. In 2022, for example, the stock market peaked on January 4, and gold climbed more than 15% before topping out in March. We're now seeing a similar pattern unfold: the S&P 500 peaked on February 19, 2025, and gold has since rallied over 17%, likely reaching its high on April 22.

Gold Deeply Overbought

The weekly gold chart spiked above the upper 10-week EMA envelope ($3,418), supporting a potential end to this blowoff phase. Similar occurrences in 2020 and 2022 marked significant tops. Our work supports a multi-month decline back to the $2,800 region.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is rolling over after reaching (maximum cycle topping). Prices are extremely overbought and due for a substantial correction.

GOLD DAILY: Gold formed a large outside reversal day in the timing window for a cycle high on April 22nd. We are in the beginning phases of the initial breakdown, which could be severe. A quick and violent drop below $3,000 is possible in May as leveraged players unwind. 

SILVER: Silver could not break above $35.00 in April, likely suppressed by paper shorts. Prices appear range-bound, and a decline to support near $26.00 is possible in the coming months. We expect prices to break above $35.00 later this year and test $50.00 in the first half of next year.

GDX: We warned investors not to chase the recent breakout in miners this late in the gold cycle, as it would likely lead to a bull trap. Prices tagged the upper boundary, signaling an end to this intermediate-degree rally. A 20% correction in gold would likely result in a 30% or greater drawdown in GDX, suggesting a breakdown below $40.00 is likely over the coming months.

GDXJ: Junior gold miners tagged the upper boundary, supporting a peak at $66.80. A breakdown below $50.00 is likely in the coming months.

SILJ: Silver juniors would have to close above the April $13.20 high to promote more upside and extend the current cycle.

NEM: Newmont beat Q1 earnings estimates by 38%, and prices reversed the recent down gap. A sustained breakout above $58.00 would promote more upside. Otherwise, I think the cycle is peaking, and I expect a multi-month pullback.

BARRICK: Barrick is underperforming, and prices would have to close above the $20.00 price gap to reverse the recent breakdown.

In Conclusion

Gold rallied from $2,100 to $3,500 in just over a year, and prices are now entering a well-deserved consolidation phase.

We view the recent move as the first leg of a broader, multi-year uptrend that could drive gold past $8,000 later this decade.

Our highest conviction call remains in silver, where we believe prices could exceed $200 once the longstanding paper price suppression ends.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com

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