Gold Ready For $100 Rally!

We have made no change to our longer term view that wave a of our wave 4 triangle ended at $1130.40 -- and that we are now rallying in our first (a), (b), (c) pattern of wave b. Wave (a) still ended at $1307.80, and within our wave (b) triangle, wave -a- ended at $1141.60 -- and we are now working on wave -b-.

Within wave –b-, we have wave .a. ending at 1224.50 and wave .b. on Friday at 1168.40. We should now be rallying in wave .c., with projected targets of $1251.30 and $1302.50.

The alternate would be our previous count that all of wave (b) ended at $1141.60.  In either case, we should be expecting a $100 to $150 rally as the next big event.

The triangle formation in the GDX does require us to consider a different possible outcome for wave (b) for gold than our original idea.  We had previously indicated that wave (b) had ended at $1141.60 (daily continuous chart low), but we now believe that wave (b) is likely becoming a bullish triangle, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

Gold was higher in the overnight session, reaching $1192.50, as this Post was being written, and then blasting to $1197!

In general, there’s no change to our current thinking as we are now rallying in wave .c. of -a- of our wave (b) triangle. We still expect near trend upside as it is not apparent to use that wave *i* of .c. is complete at the current high of 1192.50. We will wait until we clearly break the 1224/1225 area before we raise our stops to the wave .b low.

The alternate would be our previous count that all of wave (b) ended at 1141.60. In either case, we should be expecting a $100 to $150 rally as the next big event.

We plan to take profits at the end of wave .c.

No change to our current 17 long positions, risking to $1141.30!

Crude Oil

In our last Special Intraday Chart post, we provided a graphic description of wave ^iv^ and all of wave ^v^ as it current exits. The only concern we had with wave ^v^, was that the retracement of wave !ii! seemed a little shallow, so it might be possible that wave !ii! was still underway and was going to become more complex.

In the overnight session, crude moved higher.  We believe that wave !ii! probably ended at 58.34. We need a strong break above 59.88, to confirm to us that wave !ii! ended at 58.34.

We have attached an updated Suncor Weekly Chart that provided a projection for the end of wave (e), as 36.68. As previously mentioned this is a shorting opportunity and should roughing match the end of wave -iv- in crude. The risk point is clear, at 42.20, on tick above 42.81.

S&P500

There’s no change to our thinking here, as we should now be rallying in wave .c.

Our minimum target for the end of wave .c is the wave .a. high of 2125.92., but we have a projection as high as 2131.14. The S&P was up slightly in the overnight session and this morning.

We plan to short 5 positions at 2075 and 3 positions at 2047.00. Stops will be added when filled.

USDX

We’ve booked fabulous profits on our first batch of USDX shorts.  So, what now? 

In our last Special Intraday Chart Post we provided graphical details on our wave -iv- correction and have adopted that count as our preferred.

The alternate is the one where wave -v- ended at 100.26 as a failure. In our preferred wave -iv- count we believe that wave *iii* of .c. ended at 94.48 and that the current rally is wave *iv*.

We have projections for the end of wave *iv* at  95.47 and 96.08. In the overnight session the USDX reached a high of 95.77.

Note that we had a couple of other options to consider also. One was that wave *ii* was not complete at 94.48 and that wave .c. and all of wave -iv- had ended at 94.48. Both remain valid, but just barely!

In review, our preferred count for wave -iv- is:

.a. = 94.87;

.b. = 100.26;

.c.:

*i* = 97.18;

*ii* =98.68;

*iii* = 94.48, if complete;

*iv* = 95.77, if complete;

*v* down to go

We have a .c. =1.618.a. projection of 90.83 to watch also.

NatGas

Wave ii in NG likely ended last week at 2.48. We provided an updated Daily NG Chart showing the details of our wave -v- ending diagonal triangle, in our last Special Intraday Chart Post.

With that, our trading strategy will be to go long at the end of wave .ii., risking to 2.47!

We are not sure that wave .i. is complete at 2.80, but if it is our retracement levels for wave .ii. are:

50% = 2.64;

61.8% = 2.60.

Usually when markets break out of diagonal triangles, they will come back and test the trend line that the broke out of, before heading higher. In this case the 2.60 area seems like likely place to buy.

We plan to buy 5 NG at 2.60, risking to 2.47.

HUI/GDX

We have talking about the difficulty that we have been having with finding an impulsive wave structure on the intraday chart of the GDX, since it bottomed at $16.34, back in November, 2014.

The HUI/GDX moved higher this morning, reaching $20.71. This rally is all part of wave (b) or our wave b triangle formation. 

From the wave B low of 16.34, it looks like:

a:

(a)    = 20.29;

(b)   = 16.97;

(c)    = 22.93, a wave -v- failure, to complete wave a.

b triangle:

(a)    = 17.29;

(b)   is still rising;

Waves (c), (d) and (e) to go.

A run to the 22.00 area for the end of wave (b) seems likely. We will likely take profits on our long GDX positons, at the end of wave (b).

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at $18.37!

CLAUDE RESOURCES (CRJ.T0)                                                                                                  

  

Claude is our “C Wave Bellweather” stock.  It really showcases what an Elliot C Wave can bring to the table, in terms of intense upside price action.  Investors can book some profit at 90 cents, but we expect the C wave rise to turn this stock into a real twenty bagger!                                                                    

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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