Gold Seasonality Over 30 Years
The 'Gold: Second Half Increase' is the seasonal rise in gold, starting on May 5 and ending on January 21 of the following year. The increase was observed in 20 of 30 years, resulting in an average profit of +19.2%. But there were also 10 years, where the price of gold fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -12.3%. The overall rise during all 30 years was +7.6% p.a.
The 'Gold: Second Half Increase' lasts 259 calendar days. It took place in 66% of all years. Thus the statistical stability of this seasonal pattern is acceptable. It is necessary to take steps to minimize losses (e.g. through stop loss).
There was no 'Gold: Second Half Increase' during the second half of the 1990s. Gold fell during those years. More, it is being manipulated by order of the central banks. Thus one cannot judge accurately, whether this seasonal pattern is valid at present. The following table shows all 'Gold: Second Half Increases' since 1985:
Notice: Our Hot Tips are no trading recommendations. In fact, they are a real time test of seasonal patterns. Trading with seasonality requires additional means to reduce losses, for example diversification, the implementation of further indicators, or stop losses. You can find an introduction into seasonal trading under trading strategies. Please take also notice of the results of our previous tips and of our disclaimer.