HUI Index Update
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Precious Metals stocks are believed to have bottomed, although we may see a test of the recent lows, and prices may dip marginally below them in coming weeks, any such retreat being regarded as a major buying opportunity. It is considered to be too soon after the recent plunge for a new intermediate uptrend to get underway. This being so we are likely to see some backtracking after the rise of the past couple of weeks, the psychology of this being that some of those who were stunned by the ferocity of the recent plunge, are tempted to bail by the higher prices, and thus temporarily cap the advance.
Before going further it should be noted that there is a potential Head-and-Shoulders top forming in the PM stock indices, although it must be emphasised that it is now regarded as a low probability that this formation will complete and it can only be expected to do so in the event of the broad market turning seriously lower. The way to handle this risk is to exit positions in the event that the HUI index (or XAU index which exhibits a similar pattern) breaks below the "neckline" of the formation shown on the accompanying chart. In the event of the index backing off towards this line in the near future, it will present an excellent across-the-board low risk entry point for many stocks, as they can be bought with the proviso that they are sold for a modest loss in the event of a closing breach of the H&S neckline.
So, taking the positive view that the bottom is in, what can we expect to see in coming weeks? Basically, a period of backing and filling roughly between the recent low and about where we are now. This base building is what we normally see after a reaction of the kind we have just witnessed, it allows time to sentiment to recover, making renewed advance possible. It is customary for such action to continue for sufficient time to allow the falling 50-day moving average to drop back towards the 200-day, and although it is not expected to close the gap completely, it will probably do so to large extent. This gives us a clue as to how long we can reasonably expect the market to mark time before a new uptrend starts. As we can readily deduce from the HUI chart (and various stocks), we are probably looking at a period of 4 to 6 weeks. Thus the current rally from the low is believed to be close to ending and is expected to be followed by a dip back towards the lows - a dip which should be bought. Timing wise it is thought to be too early to consider call options, for the reasons just described, but these could be very advantageous if purchased towards the bottom of the developing base area in coming weeks.
Clive Maund, Diploma Technical Analysis
Kaufbeuren, Germany, 27 June 2006
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Clive P. Maund’s interest in markets started when, as an aimless youth searching for direction in his mid-20’s, he inherited some money. Unfortunately it was not enough to live a utopian lifestyle as a playboy or retire very young. Therefore on the advice of his brother, he bought a load of British Petroleum stock, which promptly went up 20% in the space of a few weeks. Clive sold them at the top…which really fired his imagination. The prospect of being able to buy securities and sell them later at a higher price, and make money for doing little or no work was most attractive – and so the quest began, especially as he had been further stoked up by watching from the sidelines with a mixture of fascination and envy as fortunes were made in the roaring gold and silver bull market of the late 70’s.
Clive furthered his education in Technical Analysis or charting by ordering various good books from the US and by applying what he learned at work on an everyday basis. He also obtained the UK Society of Technical Analysts’ Diploma.
The years following 2005 saw the boom phase of the Gold and Silver bull market, until they peaked in late 2011. While there is ongoing debate about whether that was the final high, it is not believed to be because of the continuing global debasement of fiat currency. The bear market since 2011 is viewed as being very similar to the 2-year reaction in the mid-70’s, which was preceded by a powerful advance and was followed by a gigantic parabolic price ramp. Moreover, Precious Metals should come back into their own when the various asset bubbles elsewhere burst, which looks set to happen anytime soon.
Visit Clive at his website: CliveMaund.com
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