Last Chance For A 2015 Bottom

As I have said on numerous occasions, there are several patterns that I find hard to rely upon in any chart, and one of those is a truncated bottom.  This is the only way in which one would be able to consider that the metals have completed their 4+ year correction. Therefore, I still have no solid evidence that a long term bottom has yet been struck, especially since our ideal targets set years ago have still not been struck, even though our minimum targets have.  Furthermore, the action seen off the recent lows this past week is not strongly suggestive that the final bottom has been struck.

Along those lines, the highs struck this past week may be counted as the top of corrective waves in the final decline to lower lows, but due to Friday’s action, I am even questioning that potential.  From a micro-count perspective, if the metals and miners are not lower on Monday, and immediately on their way to breaking the lows they made on Friday, we are likely heading up much higher in a larger corrective manner. This means any certain bottom call will not be made until 2016.  In fact, this has happened for the last 3 years, where, each time, the metals have had the opportunity to complete this long term correction going into the end of the year, and, each time, they have chosen to prolong it by avoiding a final decline to complete their immediate bottoming pattern.  It is almost like the metals have been teasing us.

Furthermore, since the bull market must resume with a 5 wave structure off any bottom struck in the market, I am unable to even strongly consider that the bottom has been struck since the recent rise off the lows seems to count best as a 3 wave rally.  That is not strongly suggestive that any lasting bottom has been made. Yet, there are several patterns which may be in play, especially in the GDX, if the market does not turn down strongly very early in the upcoming week.  As you can see, we may still be topping in a wave iv, or we could be tracing out a larger a-b-c down, or even a larger degree wave 4 triangle.  So, if no 5^th wave down is seen in the upcoming week, we are going to need some patience in being able to determine how we drop to lower lows, which will likely be pushed out into the upcoming year yet again.

So, if the market does not turn down in the upcoming week, we will likely hear bottom calls being made yet again by all the usual suspects, and they could be accompanied by many more new ones.  But, as it currently stands, any continued strength in the metals market will likely only present us with yet another corrective rally, which will likely only set us up for lower lows. Yes, this continues to be very frustrating, but no one can rush the market, so we must abide by price action, and respect it until the market completes this long term correction. 

Alternatively, as you can see from the green counts presented on the charts, should the markets provide us with those i-ii set ups, followed by a take out of the top of those wave i’s, that will have me believing a long term bottom has been struck.  Until such time, I am still going to expect lower lows before being able to consider that this long term correction has finally run its course.

Lastly, for those that are interested in trading the 3X miner ETF’s, Larry White, our analyst that runs our short term miner trading service, has now exceeded 425% total return for 2015. 

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See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GLD, GDX and YI at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-YI-201512131001.html  .

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.