Major Market Updates Via Technical Analysis

Gold

After reaching a high of 1231.90 in yesterday’s session gold has traded sideways. The overnight low was 1216.90. The two options that we are following are:

Option 1:  Wave *iii* is complete and we should expect a wave *iv* correction, that retraces between 23.6 and 38.2% of the wave *iii* rally. Wave *iv* cannot overlap the wave *i* high of 1199.00;

Option 2B:   Wave ^i^ of *iii* is complete or almost complete at the 1226.80 high and that we are now going to correct in wave ^ii^ of *iii*. Wave ^ii^ should retrace between 50 and 61.8% of the wave ^i^ rally.

Projections that we have are as follows:

For wave *iii* projections: 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 1226.60. This target was reached yesterday with gold hitting 1226.80.;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 1256.50.

For Option 1, the retracement levels for the end of wave *iv* are:

23.6% = 1215.30;

38.2% = 1208.00.

We note that if Option 1 is the correct one, then wave *iv* could be becoming a triangle, which would look like:

^a^ = 1210.80;

^b^ = 1231.90;

^c^ = 1216.90, if complete;

^d^ and ^e^ to go.

For Option 2B, our retracement levels for the end of wave ^ii^ are:

50% = 1202.50;

61.8% = 1196.80.

Any sell-off towards the $1196 - $1210 area should be bought by C wave enthusiasts.

No change to our current 17 long comex gold positions, risking to 1177.90!

Crude

See the attached Daily Crude Chart:

AS we mentioned in our last Weekend Post and in an Intraday Posting yesterday, it looks like wave *iv* has become a triangle.

As you can see on the attached Daily Crude chart it looks like wave ^d^ of that triangle ended at 61.71, and that we are now falling in wave ^e^. The overnight low wave 59.43. If our analysis for the triangle is correct it now looks like:

^a^ =58.14;

^b^ = 61.85;

^c^ = 58.42;

^d^ = 61.71

^e^ = 59.43, if complete , to complete all of the wave *iv* triangle.

It is still possible that the triangle will expand and in that case we are likely still working on wave ^b^. Based on the current triangle formation, wave ^e^ cannot fall below the wave ^c^ low of 58.42, so we have a risk location to go long.

We went long 5 positions at the market today, risking to 58.41. 

Our longer term strategy is to be long crude at the end of this triangle, to capture the wave *v* rally.                                                                                                    

S&P500

See the attached 120 Min S&P Chart:

The S&P reached a high of 2129.66 in yesterday’s trading. As you can see on the attached 120 Min S&P Chart, we have reached the upper red trend line of our ending diagonal triangle.

We are also a little short of our projected target of 2136.30. We also can see a 5 wave impulsive advance on the attached chart from 2085.57 to yesterday’s high.

In the overnight session, the S&P future were up a little. Our original trading strategy remains unchanged.

A major top in the S&P could be at hand.

We will short 3 SP500 positions at 2115, and 5 positions at 2065. Stops will be at the ultimate market top, plus 1 point.

USDX

The USDX has been sharply higher over the last couple of trading session, since reaching a low of 93.16. The overnight session high was 95.14, at the time that this Post was being written. It might be possible that all of wave .c. is now complete at the 93.16 low.   

All of our preferred count for wave -iv looks like:

.a. = 94.87;

.b. = 100.26;

.c.:

*i* = 97.18;

*ii* =98.68;

*iii* = 94.48;

*iv* = 96.09.

*v* = 93.16, if complete to complete all of wave .c. and -iv-.

It might also be possible that wave *iv* is also becoming a triangle. We will watch this market over the next day or so.

NG

As expected NG continues to move higher as we are getting close to completing wave ^iii^ of .iii.

Based on what we presented in our last Weekend Post, we have a target for wave ^iii^ of 3.15. In the overnight session NG reached 3.08.

We will be watching all of wave -i- unfold and our new plan will be to go long at the end of wave -ii-.

HUI/GDX

The HUI/GDX needs to drop a little lower at the opening to complete wave .iv. of our second wave -c-.

After that, we expect this market to move higher in wave .v. to complete all of our second wave -c-.

We will take profits at the end of our second wave -c-. 

Our projection for the end of our second wave -c- remains unchanged as:

-c- = 1.618-a- = 21.77;

-c- = 2.618-a- = 23.31.

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 20.25!                           

CLAUDE RESOURCES

We had hoped to see Claude (CRJ.to) rally straight to 92 cents when it got to the 70 cent price zone.  It has backed off from there, after some profits were booked.  Claude can be aggressively bought on pullbacks, as nothing has changed in the big C wave picture!  Nervous investors can use stop losses.

KINROSS

Kinross is another “go big or go home” type of situation.  The company is either going to turn around and stage an outrageous C wave advance, or it’s going to go bankrupt.  This is not a situation for widows and orphans.  It’s for gamblers, but the potential payoff is enormous!

********

Captain Ewave & Crew!

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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