Major Markets Update Via E-Wave Analysis

Gold

We might be seeing the first signs of the start of an impulsive move higher in gold.

Looking at the intraday chart from the recent $1228.60 low, we see the following development:

*i* = 1243.60;

*ii* = 1233.60. Note that the 61.8% retracement is 1234.30.

This is early, so we cannot rule the possibility that gold will still drop below the $1228.60 low, one more time,  to complete all of wave ^ii^. We do note that the GDX needs more drop to complete its wave -iv- pattern also.

A rally above $1269.00, would confirm the wave ^ii^ ended at $1228.60.

We are long 9 positions, risking to $1167.20.  Note that these are 9 real comex 100 ounce contracts.  Don’t try to duplicate what the Captain does, by the number of contracts.  Buy what is comfortable.  Some investors trade much bigger than the Captain does, and many trade much smaller.  Know your limit, and play within it!

Crude

We are working on the assumption that a double ^a^, ^b^, ^c^ pattern ended at yesterday’s high of 53.95, to complete all of wave *b* of –ii-. We are now expecting crude to drop in wave *c* of –ii- to at least the wave *a* low of 47.38.

In the overnight session crude did drop to a low of 51.88, at the time that this Post was being written. Since we are expecting a wave *c* drop it should consist of a 5 wave impulsive structure. It looks like wave $i$ of *c* ended at 51.91, so we should be expecting a rally in wave $ii$.

It could be possible that wave $ii$ ended at 52.36, in the overnight session also, although this correction is a bit shallow for our liking.

We are short 4 positions at 52.80, as a short term trade, risking to 53.96.   We will take profits on our short trades at 47.37, and likely also reverse and go long, for a major Ewave ride higher!                                                             

S&P500

The S&P rallied in the overnight session as expected, as we are likely completing our wave *c* of .ii. rally, as shown on the 10 Min S&P Chart.. The type of correction would be called an “irregular”.

Our projected end of wave .ii. is:

50% = 2060.00;

61.8% = 2062.90.

Based on the market opening, we have added to our 4 short positions today, and are now short 6 postions, risking all to the 2073 high!

Our longer term analysis for this market remains unchanged.  This market, according to our Elliot Wave analysis, is going to take out the 2009 lows!

We don’t use price patterns too much in Ewave analysis, but for those who do, the head and shoulders top on this S&P500 chart fits very well with our current wave count.

USDX

For H&S top fans, here’s another look at it:

The USDX traded sideways during overnight session, and our recent comments towards this market remain relatively unchanged. For the time being we are still going with the idea that wave .iv. ended at 93.38, but as we have been saying the current wave .v. rally does not look impulsive.

So either wave .iv. is becoming a triangle, or wave .v. a diagonal triangle.

This market needs more time for this internal structure to develop.

HUI/GDX

We are still expecting one more drop in this market to at least the 21.08 level to complete all of wave -iv-.

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at $19.87!

NEM(Newmont)

The Ewave count for Newmont, combined with the budding breakout of the red downtrend line, suggests very good things are coming to all gold stock investors, and soon!

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Special Report For Gold-Eagle Ewave Riders!  Send me an Email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my free “Silver Key Wave Counts report!  I will include key Ewave analysis for the silver monthly as well as short term charts!

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