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The New Abnormal: Social Unrest, Market Volatility & Currency Debasement

July 29, 2024

In his latest conversation with the David Lin, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, addresses US political volatility (post-assassination attempt, pre-Biden drop out) and social unrest, with special attention on their near and longer-term implications for US and global markets.

Turning to US political headlines, Piepenburg addresses the history of markets under Democratic and Republican administrations in general before specifically addressing expected forms of market support (from regulatory, M&A, taxation, tech, trade and rate signals) under a potential Trump White House. Although prior evidence and even projected risk-on expectations are near-term possibilities under a Trump administration, Piepenburg warns that longer-term signals (narrow, over-valued equities and unsustainable debt and rate markets) portend far greater mean-reversion risk than reward heading into election season in late 2024 and the year to follow.

Although recorded prior to Biden dropping out of the next election, Piepenburg realistically confessed that “Trump is looking pretty hard to beat.” As far as Biden goes, this issue is now settled.

That said, Piepenburg bluntly reminds that regardless of who wins in 2024, no one—from “Papa Smurf to Albert Einstein”- can solve or prevent the debt-driven iceberg already scraping the bow of the US markets and economy. Lin asked of the increasing risk of “civil war” in the already divided-states. According to Piepenburg, the divisions are (and have been) openly apparent; there are no easy answers. We can, however, foresee that increasing centralization is the more real and present danger as inflationary realities undermine the political, social and financial stability of a nation in open decline.

Beneath these inflationary (and hence currency-destroying) currents lies the undeniable debt crisis facing the US in particular and the world in general. The additional de-dollarization forces add further pressures against the USD (and fiat money in general) and point directly to the undeniable case for (and role of) physical gold as an essential allocation.

VonGreyerz.gold

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Matt began his finance career as a transactional attorney before launching his first hedge fund during the NASDAQ bubble of 1999-2001

Thereafter, he began investing his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. Matthew worked closely as well with Morgan Stanley’s hedge fund platform in building a multi-strat/multi-manager fund to better manage risk in a market backdrop of extreme central bank intervention/support. The conviction that precious metals provides the most reliable and longer-term protection against potential systemic risk led Matt to join VON GREYERZ.

The author of the Amazon No#1 Release, Rigged to Fail, Matt is fluent in French, German and English; he is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA) and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behaviour of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.