A Reminder From the 3 Month T-bill and 2 yr Yield

The 3 month T-bill yield is still excessively divergent from the 2 year Treasury yield

If the history of this chart holds true that means that despite whatever bullish fun we are having now, there is a signal in play (3 month T-bill yield grossly exceeds the 2 year Treasury yield) that would trigger a new bear market in stocks within about 1.5 years of the signal’s origin.

We are now about a year in to the current signal as SPX rises to correct its bear market false start last year.

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