The Stock Market has Big Problems, but Trump’s Tariffs aren’t one of Them
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By Friday’s close, everyone knew what caused this week’s market’s huge sell off, it was because of Trump, and his tariffs. The below is from Thursday.
https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-rates-tariffs-52dbb020a4c41122e31669c2da236d67
It only got worse on Friday, and all because of Trump and his tariffs!
Some “market experts” reported the fact, that Thursday’s 1,679-point plunge in the Dow Jones,’ was its 5th largest daily decline in history. Or, was until Friday’s 2,231-point plunge. Geeze Louise, what kind of maniac does the United States have for a President?
By using the Dow Jones’ published valuation, in dollars, I’m sure that is true. What is also true, is how after 112 years of the Federal Reserve’s “monetary policy,” using the dollar for any historical measurement of the Dow Jones, is an exercise in ignorance.
Using the dollar to compare the price of anything over a few decades, let alone the Dow Jones, which goes back to 1885, is a failure in understanding the full scope of the dollar’s decline in valuation, since 1913, when Congress legislated its Federal Reserve, its central-banking monstrosity into existence.
Here’s a video from 1975, where Father Guido explains inflation’s effects on the price of a McDonalds’ Big Mac. The video is only two minutes long, and very humorous. Watch it, you’ll like it.
For another example, I paid my property tax today, on a house that was valued by the county’s tax assayer to be worth around $40,000, when I purchased it in 1996. Today, I noted my humble home is now valued at $182,000, by the county’s tax assayer. By necessity, or so I’m told, my property tax has risen accordingly. To live in such a splendid manner, with running hot water and a flushing toilet, I should expect to pay for it, or so my county’s tax assayer believes.
It’s not that my property’s driveway and sidewalks are now paved with gold. Rather, it is just that the idiots at the FOMC, have mangled the dollar to the extent, where a house built in 1910 for $500, as was my house, is now valued at $182,000.
There is a reason why there are so many homeless people in the United States. In 2025; American politicians have had their meat-hooks set deep into the mortgage system for many decades, as seen in the Barron’s quote from 1954, below.
Using credit from the Federal Reserve, a source of unlimited credit, in the following decades, in their best efforts to provide “affordable housing” to their constituents, Washington’s political class have priced many Americans out the housing and rental markets, and on to the streets.
Things as they are now, as they have been, at least since 1954, it is only a matter of time before my current $182,000 estate will become a palace, valued at over $500,000, thanks to the idiots at the FOMC, and my members of Congress.
But we were discussing the Dow Jones this week.
Let’s look at other historical calamities, and see how the Dow Jones reacted to them. Following the Sunday of, December 7th, 1941’s attack on Pearl Harbor, (table below, left side) the Dow Jones was down $4.08, or 3.50%. Considering the historical impact Pearl Harbor had on World History, that isn’t much of a decline in the Dow Jones.
Historical note; before the mid-1950s, the stock market traded on Saturdays.
On the day President Kennedy was assassinated, Friday, November 22, 1963, the Dow Jones was down $20.56, or 2.41%. The next trading day, the Dow Jones advanced by a whopping 4.50%. In November 1963, Wall Street shed no tears for our dead President.
One would think America’s entry into WWII, and the assassination of an American President, would have had a significant, and negative impact on the Dow Jones. However, as seen above, they didn’t – why?
That is a simple question to answer; in December 1941, as in November 1963, valuations for the Dow Jones weren’t grossly over inflated, as they are now in April 2025. In April 2025, the inflated valuations seen in the American stock market, are only looking for an excuse to begin to deflate. President Trump, and his tariffs, are as good an excuse as any to blame on a big bear market decline.
So, the major problem this market has is; GROTESQUE OVERVALUATIONS.
A situation that has nothing to do with President Trump, or with anything he is going to do, or isn’t going to do, for this, that, or anything else, including tariffs. The big problem is, our financial markets’ valuations have been inflated far beyond any point of prudence, for decades now, as seen in the chart below.
Retail investors loved seeing stock market valuation’s being inflated from below 800 in 1982, to over 45,000 in 2024. And the financial establishment loved providing that service to the public, and weren’t shy to take credit for it. As seen in the two quotes below, by former FOMC Idiot Primates.
But, and this is a BIG BUT, but even a FOMC Idiot Primate can stack shit only so high. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow Jones’ 45,014, seen on December 4th, will prove to be the summit valuation, of this particular pile of, you know what.
If so, the idiots at the FOMC, while proud of their heap now piled high on Wall Street, won’t want to take responsibility when this shit hits the fan. Right now, these weasels are scheming to blame it all on Trump and his tariffs, who had nothing to do with this inflationary monstrosity, called the American stock market.
As far as Trump’s tariffs go, I like them. They’ll come down faster than they went up, for those countries that currently have punitive trade-tariffs against American goods, as soon as they allow American manufactured goods into their economies, by lowering their tariffs on American manufactured goods.
How can any American be against that? Though I can understand why Germany doesn’t want to see American-made Fords driving down their autobahn.
These high foreign tariffs against American goods, were, in most cases implemented with American approval. High foreign tariffs were part of the Marshall Plan during the early 1950s, to get Europe and Japan back on their feet again following WWII. They’ve been in place for the past seventy-years, and have long ago become a bad habit.
It’s time for them to come down, and that is what Trump is attempting to do, with his tariffs. That there will be pain in this process, is only to be expected. But at the end of it, it will be better for everyone.
These same people; the media and other avid Never Trumpers’ fear-mongering the American people about the economic harm Trump’s tariffs will do, said nothing during past decades, when American manufacturing closed shop at home, to move their factories and jobs overseas.
When President Obama promised to kill coal fired electrical utilities to save the planet from “global warming,” with punitive government regulations, and taxes, the coal mining industry lost many jobs, and who cared? Not these same people in the media, who now warn everyone about tariffs.
Some journalists, quipped the unemployed coal miners in Kentucky and West Virginia, should learn to write computer code for a living. These never Trumpers are no friends to you or me, so are best ignored.
Okay, I got that out of my system, and now onto this week’s Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart for the Dow Jones. Yikes! This week, the Dow Jones collapsed below its BEV -10% line, and almost closed below its BEV -15% line. This is something the Dow Jones didn’t do for Pearl Harbor; a two day, 9.26% decline from Wednesday’s close, and we can expect more deflation, and tariffs scares to follow.
Let’s compare the Dow Jones’ BEV chart, with that of gold’s in the BEV charts below. This week, the Dow Jones saw the bottom blown out from it, while gold remained in scoring position, during this week’s panic in the stock market.
Gold would have done better, had flight capital not fled into crypto-currencies and T-debt. Give it some time. Gold’s day in the sun is coming.
Next is a chart of the Dow Jones, with its 52Wk High and Low lines. It’s an ugly chart. The Dow Jones is only 579 points away from beginning to push down on its 52Wk Low line, something it hasn’t done since May 2022.
My table for the BEV values of the major market indexes I follow, is a sight of horror at this week’s close. No BEV Zeros, or indexes in scoring position, and only one index remaining above its BEV -10% line, the Dow Jones Utilities Average, but just barely.
To see the full impact Mr Bear had on the stock market this week, compare where these indexes were on Monday, to where they closed the week on Friday. Mr Bear clawed back at least a BIG 5%, and more from these indexes.
In this week’s performance table above, gold held on to its #1 position. Since 05 November 2021, nothing has done better than an ounce of gold. In a week of panic on Wall Street, gold once again became a safe harbor in a storm. Sorry to say, I can’t say the same for silver (#3) or the gold and silver miners in the XAU (#4). But in time, all that will change, or should.
Let’s look at a Bear’s Eye View chart for the NASDAQ Banking Index. After failing to make a new BEV Zero (new all-time high) last November, this week these banks broke below their BEV -30% line. Can’t have a bull market on Wall Street, when the banks are in trouble.
I suspect, before the year is out, these bank’s lows of May 2023 will be taken out. And if this bear market is for real, these banks may lead the stock market down to the bottom. As so far, they have, as seen in the table above, where I’ve listed the BEV values for the major stock market indexes.
How bad was this week? Looking at the NYSE’s 52Wk Lows in the table below, it was pretty bad, with 1,042 of the NYSE’s 2,856 issues trading, closing at a 52Wk Low on Friday.
How does this compare to past spikes in NYSE 52Wk Lows? Bad, but not that bad, as seen in the chart below. This week’s NYSE 52Wk H-L Ratio was a -36%. Though bad, not as bad as it has gotten in the past. These past spikes in NYSE 52Wk Lows, usually signal an approaching market bottoms, a good time to buy as everyone is selling at a loss. But, I’m wary of thinking that is so this time.
First, because the market really hasn’t sold off all that much. I’d feel more comfortable thinking of buying, if the Dow Jones’ BEV was below -40%. Down over 40% from its last all-time high from last December.
That, plus the establishment, the establishment President Trump has been cutting off its sources of corrupt funding via his DOGE, and firing corrupt officials for the deep state, when he discovers them, wants revenge. Everything in Washington was so nice before Trump came back into office. So, most of the Federal Government wants Trump’s head on a platter. That, plus the establishment wants to punish the public that voted for him last November.
It seems to me, the best way for them to stop Trump, and punish his voters, would be to have the biggest collapse in the stock market since the Great Depression, and blame it all on MAGA.
Back to the chart above, seeing a NYSE 52Wk H-L Ratio of -36% at this week’s close, suggests the market is due for a bounce, sometime in the next week or two. But note; ALL MAJOR BEAR-MARKET DECLINES HAVE BULLISH REBOUNDS, bullish advances that draw in the unwary, that will soon regret coming back into the market.
Just keep in mind, Dow Jones’ daily moves of 2% or more, are typically bear market events. THAT IS ESPECIALLY SO OF DAILY ADVANCES OF 2%, OR MORE, as seen in the chart below. A Dow Jones’ daily advance of 5%, or more in the weeks to come, would be no reason to become bullish on the stock market.
Now on to gold’s BEV chart. Not much to say, except gold’s market advance, which entered scoring position in November 2023 (daily kept within its BEV 0.00% and -5% lines), remains intact.
In fact, gold made two new all-time highs this week, its 60th and 61st since entering into scoring position (Red Circle), in November 2023.
Looking at gold’s step sum table below, it looks good. Its 15-count closed the week with a +3, down nicely from the overbought +7 from last week’s close. Look at all the new BEV Zeros since early March, seven of them, with two of them this week.
Technically, gold is set to continue its current advance in the weeks and months to come. And that is as good as it gets, on the 4th of April for the gold market. Now we wait to see what come next week.
As for the Dow Jones, its looking very nasty over on the right side of the table above. Look at all those red down days. But the Dow Jones 15-count closed the week with a neutral -1, meaning that as far as a step-sum measures oversold market conditions, the Dow Jones is yet to be oversold, and won’t be until it sees a -7, (11 daily declines & 4 daily advances in a running 15-day sample) as seen in the table below.
Looking at the Dow Jones daily volatility’s 200D M/A in the table above, I note how since last week, it has spiked from 0.60%, to 0.66% in the Red Box.
I warned everyone, when daily volatility for the Dow Jones begins increasing towards its 1.00% level, you wouldn’t need me to tell you something bad was happening in the stock market. Should (if) this volatility metric increases to something far above 1.00%, it will be brutal for the bulls, as this market’s inflated valuations, begins evaporating in earnest.
But that assumes the idiots at the FOMC, will allow valuations in the financial markets to deflate. At some point in this assumed decline of mine, they may decide to once again “stabilize market valuations” with their 5th QE, since January 2009.
If so, we may see market valuations once again spike into record highs, as happened following the March 2020 Flash Crash, and its Not QE#4. But if the idiots do this, can the dollar survive it?
I find all this action in the financial markets very interesting. But I keep in mind there are more important things in life than making money in the market. Each of us is born, and a few years later we become self-aware of our lives. Eventually, we learn what my father told me years ago, that the only certainty in life, is death and taxes.
But, I’m a Christian, someone who believes Christ on his cross, conquered death. Which is a very good thing for Jesus’s followers, as we’ll spend eternity in heaven with our Savior. And “belief” is the operative word here, as no one really knows if that is true. So, why should anyone believe in Jesus?
There are prophecies of future events made in the Bible. Some of them concerning the end days, of things that have never happened before. The world will be ruled by a global government. Hitler and Lenin worked to achieve that, as others did for thousands of years, but this has never happened; not yet anyway.
But a global elite has been making their plans for this prophesied global government for decades, as see in the quote below. These people hide in darkness, for what they want to do is shameful. Why anyone would believe anything the mainstream media says is beyond me.
Bankers attempting to control the world, by manipulating the money supply, was bad enough when it was a choice between gold, silver, or paper money. But with the foreseen probability of money going fully digital, the Bible promises that the impact will become – Biblical.
This global government will be headed by the worst dictator to have ever had power over humanity. No one on Earth will be able to buy, or sell, without receiving the mark of this beast, on their forehead or hand. What good is money in such a system, where politicians push Apple Pay its logical extremes.
Today, artificial intelligence (AI), and the global digital network, is making this prophecy, made thousands of years before, a coming reality. Where central banking, can turn your money on, or off. It’s already that way in Communist China, with their social credit scoring system, designed for them by American Silicone Valley high-tech companies. Companies that would be very willing to provide this same service to Washington, to keep the American people under control.
In such a world, what good will gold and silver be to their owners? Below is what the prophets of the Bible, from thousands of years ago, told us.
Mark J. Lundeen
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