Technical Analysis Of Major Markets

Gold Price Analysis

   

We are working on the assumption that wave .ii. ended on Friday at 1116.30, and that we have started wave .iii. higher! 

In the overnight session gold reached a high of 1122.70, at the time that this Post was being written. 

On the Intraday Chart we are still waiting to see a definitive impulsive sequence that will confirm to us that all of wave .ii. is complete at the 1116. 30 low. 

 Our current wave .ii. count looks like: 

*a* = 1117.00;

*b* = 1147.30;

*c* still underway with a minimum target of 1117.00. Note that *c* = 0.618*a* = 1114.70.

Our 50 to 61.8% retracement levels are 1121.10 and 1109.50, respectively.

Here’s a shorter term Ewave look at gold, using the daily chart:

A break above Friday’s high of 1132.20, would confirm to us that wave .ii. is complete at 1116.30.  Once we are satisfied that wave .ii. is complete we will provide our projections for the end of wave .iii..

We are long 20 positions, risking to 1072.00!

Crude Oil

Crude reached a low of 44.15 in the overnight session, and it is looking likely that we will revisit the 43.21 low one more time, to complete all of wave *ii*.

It looks like the drop from 48.42 to 44.15 was our second wave ^a^.

We should now expect a second wave ^b^ rally.

In that case our current count would be:

^a^ = 43.88;

^b^ = 46.32;

^c^ = 43.21;

^x^ = 48.42;

^a^ = 44.15; ^b^ rally is now;

^c^ drop to go to at least the 43.21 low. 

A sharp rally above 49.33 likely confirms that wave *ii* ended at 43.21.

On the longer term chart, it’s clear that the $35 - $50 is  major support zone, and that can serve as the launching pad for what we believe will be ultimately a rise to new all-time highs.

We plan to go long 8 positions at 42.95, and buy 42.00 puts as stops!                                                                             

S&P500

The S&P Futures were sharply higher in the overnight session, rising up about 31.00 points at the time that this Post was being written!

We are working on the assumption that wave -iv- has become a triangle with wave .d. ending at 1911.21. The current rally is wave .e.

For this analysis to remain in play, wave .e. cannot rally above the wave .c. high of 1975.01.

Upon completion of the wave -iv- triangle, expect the S&P to plunge in a wave -v- thrust lower, to at least the wave -iii- low of 1867.01.

We will try to short additional positions at the end of wave .e., which will likely come on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Ewave subscribers should watch for an Intraday Post for this opportunity today.

In the big picture, we continue to believe a 1929-style meltdown is likely for the stock market.

We are short 5 positions with 1975 calls! 

USDX

Our current Ewave count is:

.i. = 93.17;

.ii. = 98.41;

.iii.:

*i* = 92.54;

*ii* = 96.64, if complete. The 78.6% retracement of wave *ii* is 97.15. 

*iii* drop is next.

We are short 5 positions, risking to 98.42!

NG

One bullish count we have for natural gas is: 

-i- = 3.11;

-ii- = 2.56, if complete;

-iii-:

.i. = 2.96;

.ii. = 2.62, if complete;

.iii. rally is beginning.

XAU/HUI/GDX

Waiting for our anticipating C wave higher is frustrating, but we must wait a bit longer to see how it trades in the coming days, to see if the recent lows are lasting.   The XAU index chart has a very bullish wedge pattern in play, so we expect the wait to be worthwhile!

We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

CLAUDE RESOURCES

Claude is our bellwether gold stock.   There’s a large and bullish inverse head and shoulders bottom in play now.  That should be the launch pad for our C wave higher. Watch for a break over the neckline to really get the upside action started!

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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