Just when we think that Bernanke has exhausted his ability to come up with harebrained schemes to distort prices, he proves us wrong. Last week it was reported that the Fed was considering a new way of putting downward pressure on long-...
"Is the Fed a Failure?" is the title of an article by Gene Epstein in the 27th February edition of Barrons magazine. The article draws on the work of economist George Selgin to argue that the answer to the question is yes, the Fed is a...
Although it is a long way from being a mainstream view, over the past two months we've read several comments along the lines of: the financial world will soon be immersed in another 2008-style crisis, only worse. In some cases the...
In our 11th January 2012 commentary we argued that a certain 'technical analyst' was wrong to extrapolate gold's recent price action into a forecast of imminent deflation. We did so by pointing out that a) the year-over-year (YOY) rate of...
When reading stuff about the pros and cons of investing in gold we regularly come across two misguided assertions, the first being that changes in gold's price in terms of a currency do little more than offset changes in the currency's...
Many investors pigeon-hole themselves as "inflationists" or "deflationists", where an inflationist is someone who expects more inflation over the years immediately ahead and a deflationist is someone who expects deflation. They then latch...
There is regularly talk about the Fed (or Treasury) devaluing the US dollar, but how do you devalue something that doesn't have a fixed measurement? Specifically, what would the Fed/Treasury devalue the dollar against and how would they go...
Clarifying our depression forecast
Although we are anticipating another great depression we want to emphasise that we are NOT anticipating a replay of the 1930s. We are anticipating a drawn-out period of economic contraction, but the...
Intrinsic Value Investing