Can XAU/USD Sustain Its Gains Ahead of Key Fed Minutes?
LONDON (February 19) Gold prices climbed to a fresh all-time high of $2,947.08 on Wednesday, driven by renewed safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. While the metal remains in a strong uptrend, a higher-high, lower-close chart pattern suggests selling pressure could lead to a short-term pullback. If gold falls below $2,864.33, it would shift the minor trend lower and weaken momentum.
Despite this, bullish traders have been aggressively buying dips, reinforcing gold’s long-term uptrend. With no clear resistance ahead, the possibility of gold reaching $3,000 remains firmly in play.
Tariff Threats Fuel Gold’s Rally
Trump’s latest trade policies are a key driver behind gold’s surge. The U.S. president has announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on auto imports, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. These measures add to his previous tariffs, including a 10% duty on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
Such trade tensions have historically bolstered gold as investors seek protection against economic uncertainty. Traders are closely monitoring further developments, with any escalation likely to strengthen gold’s appeal.
Fed Minutes and Treasury Yields in Focus
Gold’s bullish momentum is also being influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. The FOMC meeting minutes, set for release later in the day, will provide further insight into the central bank’s stance on interest rates.
Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield
The Fed has kept rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% following three consecutive cuts since September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank needs to see “real progress” on inflation before considering any further adjustments. A more hawkish tone from the Fed could pressure gold by boosting Treasury yields, but any impact is expected to be short-lived as inflation concerns persist.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher as traders awaited economic data, including building permits and housing starts for January. Strong economic data could further influence rate expectations, impacting gold’s near-term movements.
Dollar Holds Steady, Yen Strengthens on Safe-Haven Flows
Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)
The U.S. dollar remained stable against major currencies on Wednesday, while the yen gained strength as traders weighed geopolitical risks. Talks over a potential Ukraine ceasefire and Trump’s tariff announcements added to market uncertainty, prompting some investors to shift toward traditional safe-haven assets.
Forex analysts note that the market remains cautious about Trump’s tariff plans, with traders awaiting further clarity on potential trade disruptions. However, the continued threat of tariffs and geopolitical instability keeps gold well-supported.
Gold Prices Forecast: Pullback Likely Before Next Leg Higher
While gold remains in a firm uptrend, a short-term correction is possible if selling pressure intensifies. A drop below $2,864.33 would signal a minor trend shift, but strong dip-buying interest could limit downside risks.
Fundamentally, gold’s bullish case remains intact. Continued central bank buying, persistent inflation concerns, and ongoing geopolitical tensions all support higher prices. If safe-haven demand persists, gold could test the psychological $3,000 level in the near future. Traders should watch Fed commentary and economic data closely for further catalysts.
FXEmpire
