Gold Editorials & Commentary

We expect the rally in the USDX to continue as we head higher in wave but for the time being we are assuming that wave b is becoming a simple 3 wave corrective pattern.

In this video, Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, Joins us today to talk about the current state of the global economy and its impact on the financial markets.

For most investors and market analysts today, there is little or no reference to the period 1960-80 as it pertains to gold and interest rates. There are some of us around, though, who experienced it both personally and professionally.

As noted in the previous post, the SPX/Gold ratio is at a time of decision; real or not real? The CRB/Gold ratio, on the other hand, is at a different kind of decision point. One where it will advise whether or not the inflation problem is going away.

Significant moves in Gold and outperformance for Gold against the stock market occur when the yield curve steepens. A steepening curve precedes Fed rate cuts and usually signals a recession.

Theoretically, a higher price can indicate an increase in value for a good, a service, a stock, etc. That does not mean that a higher price is always indicative of an increase in value.

I am going to start this update with a presentation as to how we got here for the benefit of those reading my articles for the first time, and I will then take it forward with parameters as to where I think we are going.

Most gold investors in America tend to focus on the “fear” trade. Negative real rates are good for gold. Recessions are good for gold. Almost anything bad that happens is deemed as good for gold.

Gold strengthened with the weakening of the U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields following comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) president about a likely interest-rate hike in July.

The markets just assumed a dovish U-turn in interest rates, thinking that the inflation problem is handled. The below chart features the inflation that’s expected in one year.

Since reaching a high of USD 2,067 on May 3rd, the bears have taken control of the gold market. In an initial wave down lasting about three and a half weeks, they pushed the price of gold down to USD 1,932.

The Midas Touch Gold Model illuminates the gold market from many different perspectives with a rational and holistic approach. It convinces with its versatility and its quantitative measurability. While rooted in extensive data, the model excels at distilling a...

When will the rampaging bull run out of steam? A good question, considering how Wall Street has been flouting a slew of good reasons for the broad averages to be at multiyear lows rather than revving up for a shot at new record highs.

As a banker and economist, I am riveted by the expeditious demise of Silicon Valley Bank and other institutions. Were these crashes due to bank mismanagement, as many pundits as well as regulators have posited? Were they due to not managing risk, not hedging, and...

I see a lot of traders and analysts still stuck in the bear market thesis for stocks or for the stock market, and I tried to warn people months and months ago when the Dow and the transports both confirmed a higher high, producing a Dow Theory Buy Signal, that ...

Our last article compared Gold today with the stock market in the early 1980s. Today we draw some comparisons between the Gold market at present and the Gold market at various points in the past. Gold’s status today fits elements of three past situations.

The title to this week’s missive pretty much puts it all in perspective.  And to the extent this week’s closing bit spooks you from stocks is your own cash management decision.  Nonetheless, let’s start with this triple-shot:

As the Federal Reserve begins to back off on tightening, the U.S. dollar is becoming increasingly vulnerable to selling. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at just above 5% at this week's policy meeting. It was the first time in over a year that...

The Dow Jones closed up this week, making another approach to break above its BEV -5% line below, something it has failed to do since last November, in the circle below. But will it break above it this time?

The gold market has become a social gathering place for an odd combination of participants. Those participants range from the gullible and the disillusioned to those seeking the next big thing.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN. GLD is on short term sell signal. GDX is on short term new buy signal. XGD.to is on short term sell signal. GDXJ is on short term sell signal.

Gold’s recent pullback looks to be bottoming, despite ongoing aggressive Fed hawkishness.  In recent weeks the yellow metal has consolidated high, defying aggressive Fedspeak, another big US-jobs upside surprise, and hawkish rate forecasts from top Fed officials. ...

A lot of analysts were looking for a turn in the markets after the Fed meet, and it could still happen because option expiry day is today. 

The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at its June meeting or at least skipped a rate hike. This...

News here in the USA has been full of the latest farce known as raising or not raising the debt ceiling. After the usual dog-and-pony show, a budget deal was reached. But was it progress? It was a foregone conclusion that the debt ceiling would be raised, yet again...

While Jerome Powell and the governors at the Federal Reserve assert that the economy is strong and well, the signs that this isn't the case continue to emerge in the economic data. And in today's episode of the show, Dave Kranzler looks at the evidence supporting...

Yesterday’s FOMC and the following press conference were groundbreaking. Rates stayed, but Fed said about raising them twice this year = no U-turn!

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new price inflation data Tuesday, and according to the report, price inflation during May decelerated, coming in at the lowest year-over-year increase in twenty-six months.

As noted in yesterday’s post, a Fed rate pause for June is the overwhelming expectation after inflation – as measured by mainstream economists – increased at its slowest rate in 2 years. All to plan, folks.

This week for Ask an Economist, I have a question from retired CPA, Nicholas G. He asks, “why is so much attention paid to the somewhat artificial and easily manipulated unemployment number instead of a "hard" number such as the number/rate of employment amongst the...