Gold rally to peak above $3,000/oz before pulling back in 2025 – StoneX 2025 Outlook
NEW YORK (January 23) Gold prices will benefit from political and financial tensions that might hinder the rest of the metals complex in the first half of 2025, but with much of these uncertainties already priced in and likely receding, the yellow metal will cede its place to silver, copper, and tin as the green and digital rollouts continue to gain pace, according to StoneX Financial.
In their 2025 Annual Metals Outlook published Wednesday, StoneX Head of Market Analysis for EMEA & Asia Rhona O’Connell and Senior Analyst of Base Metals for EMEA & Asia Natalie Scott-Gray warned precious metals investors not to expect a repeat of gold’s standout performance from last year, as silver, copper and tin will likely be 2025’s top gainers.
“This year’s review and outlook for the major base and precious metals markets from the London analysts at StoneX Financial Ltd targets silver, copper and tin as the metals to watch this year, while aluminium is the one of which to be wary,” they wrote in a press announcement. “StoneX expects gold to peak during 2025, possibly having tested $3,000, but finishing the year in retreat.”
In the full Outlook report, O’Connell and Scott-Gray argue that if anything, the global landscape looks even more uncertain than it did in January of 2024.
“This time last year, the world was concentrating on geopolitical risk, notably revolving around over 50 elections with over half the global population having the chance to vote; along with international tensions, both military and trade-related, and lingering stresses in the banking system. None of that has gone away,” they wrote. “In fact at the start of 2025 we are arguably facing more uncertainty and geopolitical risk than we were twelve months ago.”
Among the most pressing of these uncertainties, the authors list “the fact that the Middle East, while trying to find solutions, is not making a huge amount of headway, that there is polarization in parts of Europe, that some governments are looking fragile and that we do not yet know how President-Elect Trump will develop his policies – or indeed whether some of his more radical proposals will get through a finely divided Congress without being significantly watered down.”
“It is also perfectly possible that his stance on tariffs thus far may prove to be a negotiating position,” they added.
On China, StoneX believes the Asian giant “is on track to achieve its goal of ~5% GDP growth, despite an uneven performance in which record low confidence, building local government debt and an ailing property market were offset by supply and industrial-led sectors,” and they expect that China “is likely to set another modest target of ~5% GDP for 2025, supported heavily by both monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts, as the positive impact from stronger than anticipated exports in 2024 faces growing headwinds from potential tariffs and slower than previously forecast rate cuts in the west.”
Turning to the outlook for the yellow metal, O’Connell and Scott-Gray wrote that gold is likely “to continue to benefit from persistent and changing geopolitical risks; not just international tensions, but uncertainty over the policies of new governments around the world.”
“Some governments potentially likely to be fragile,” they noted. “Banking stresses have not gone away and inflationary risks also highlight likely central bank policies. Some of this is already baked in, of course.”
"A key sentiment driver will be Official Sector activity,” the authors added, “not so much due to the tonnage, but from the signals that it sends to the markets.”
StoneX also highlighted gold’s key role as a defense against systemic stress, and they point out that government debt levels “tend to restrict budgetary flexibility and this means that any negative economic or financial shocks can be difficult to manage,” while noting that national debt is uncomfortably high in many of the advanced economies.
“The IMF estimates that public debt in 2024 has reached $100Tn or 93% of global GDP and while it is projected to decline in a number of countries, those where is it is expected to increase account for over two-thirds of global GDP,” the authors wrote. “Risks to debt are tilted heavily to the upside and if it is to be stabilised then fiscal tightening will be necessary. If balances are to be improved, then government spending vs tax revenues need to be balanced, which makes it difficult.”
“It is notable that in December Congress threw out President-elect Trump’s bill to extend the debt-limit deadline on the proviso that the debt ceiling was scrapped,” they added. “And the high level of US debt will militate against Mr. Trump’s pledges to cut taxes, while some of his policies will extend US debt levels further.”
“As far as gold is concerned, high debt levels argue in favour of robust office sector gold holdings as a risk mitigator,” O’Connell and Scott-Gray said. “High national debt as a potential destabiliser, at least as far as fiscal manoeuvrability is concerned, is also one of the factors that has been driving professional investment in gold, especially over the past eighteen months or so.”
After ending 2024 at $2,609 per ounce, StoneX projects the gold price to average $2,950 this year – likely breaking above the $3,000 per ounce barrier at various times – before declining to $2,780 by year-end, for an annual gain of 6.6%.
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