Gold retreats as global factors ease, Fed to be more measured
LONDON (September 27) Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower to trade in the $2.660s per troy ounce on Friday, as the impact of Chinese government stimulus starts to ebb and central banks globally adopt a less dovish stance.
In addition, better-than-expected data out of the US lowered the chances of the Fed making another aggressive 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November. This further weighs on Gold as expectations of interest rates falling at a slower pace suggest a high opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing asset. The USD is recovering too, adding to the precious metal’s headwinds.
Gold edges lower after making new record highs
Gold pulls back after touching a new record high of $2,685 on Thursday, as the effect of the extra 1 trillion CNY of stimulus announced by the Chinese Politburo appears to have been priced in and central banks globally tend to adopt a less dovish stance. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept rates unchanged at their meeting, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut rates by only 25 bps. A recent Reuters poll, meanwhile, showed that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates by a modest 50 bps over the next six months.
In addition, the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates by half a percent at their meeting in November has eased after positive US macroeconomic data. US Initial Jobless Claims showed a decline to 218K in the week ending September 20, and the final estimate of Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remained in line with previous estimates at a fairly healthy 3.0% annualized. Further, US Durable Goods Orders beat estimates and overall recent data out of the US describes a soft landing for the economy that goes against market bets for aggressive monetary easing.
The probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the November Fed meeting has fallen back down to 50% from over 60% prior to the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold may also be seeing reduced safe-haven flows as fears the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah might spill over into a ground offensive fail to materialize. Although tensions remain high and a 21-day ceasefire deal put together by the Americans was rejected on Thursday, neither has the situation escalated either.
On Wednesday, the head of Israeli Defence Forces, Herzi Halevi, told his troops that they should prepare for a ground offensive on Lebanon. If such an invasion should take place, it would further ratchet up risk aversion and increase safe-haven flows into the yellow metal.
FXStreet
