Mixed day for financial markets: Bitcoin holds $60k, gold shows resilience, stocks decline
NEW YORK (October 3)
Thursday was a mixed and volatile day of trading for financial markets as investors struggled to plot their next course of action among multiple recent significant developments – including the rising specter of war, major economic stimulus payments, interest rate cuts, catastrophic hurricanes, and a port worker strike that threatens supply chain instability.
A dip in stock futures before the market open forecast a red day for equities as uncertainty about the unfolding conflict in the Middle East kept traders from engaging with the market amid concerns over Israel’s potential ground operation into Lebanon. Oil is also of high interest to investors following three straight days of price increases.
“Analysts have raised concerns that oil markets are underestimating the potential risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East,” said analysts at Secure Digital Markets. “A retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran’s oil infrastructure could lead to a significant spike in oil prices, with wide-reaching market implications.”
At the closing bell, the S&P and Dow finished in the red, down 0.17% and 0.44%, respectively, while the Nasdaq was flat. Crude Oil futures gained 5.52% on the day to trade at 73.97.
Data provided by TradingView shows that after an early morning rally stalled out short of $61,500, Bitcoin (BTC) bears made multiple attempts to break the back of support at $60,000, but thus far, bulls have proved determined to hold the psychologically important level.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“Bitcoin is showing resilience, bouncing off its 50-day moving average, which presents an attractive entry opportunity for traders who missed the recent uptrend,” said Secure Digital Markets Analysts. “The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, set to be released on Friday at 8:30 AM ET, is a key event to watch. A strong report could boost market sentiment, while a miss may trigger a sell-off across risk assets.”
“Despite the recent pullback, there is notable whale activity accumulating Bitcoin, indicating confidence in a future rally,” they added. “Notably, these inflows into long-term holding wallets are not related to ETF structures but are primarily custodial wallets with no outflows, neither exchange nor miner-owned. As Bitcoin’s correction persists, altcoins have also felt the pressure, with market cap dropping by over 10%. However, signs of a potential rebound are emerging.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $60,745, an increase of 0.27% on the 24-hour chart.
As for spot gold, the yellow metal continues to live up to the safe haven hype and, at the time of writing, trades at $2,658/oz, unchanged on the session.
Buy the dip under $60,000
Bitcoin’s standing as ‘digital gold’ and a safe haven asset has taken a hit this week as the top crypto is down nearly 9% since last Friday amid the uptick in geopolitical tensions, but according to analysts at Standard Chartered, the pullback offers investors another opportunity to buy the dip.
In a note emailed to clients on Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, highlighted that BTC is not a safe haven against geopolitical risks – stressing that “Gold is a geopolitical hedge” – but said it still serves an important role as “a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury sustainability issues.”
He added that “The amount of call option open interest for the 27 December expiry at a $80,000 strike price on Derebit jumped by 1300 Bitcoin over the last two days,” highlighting that traders are betting on its price to rise into year-end.
Kendrick said that geopolitical concerns depressed the Bitcoin price but increased Donald Trump's odds of winning the U.S. election in November, which improved BTC's post-election outlook.
“Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push Bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend, but, positions like the $80,000 call options highlighted here and the circularity vis-à-vis Trump probabilities suggests the dip should be bought into,” he wrote.
Data from Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning have increased by about 1% recently, while Harris's have dropped by the same amount. As a result, Harris's likelihood of winning the November election now stands at 49% versus 50% for Trump.
“This creates an interesting circularity for Bitcoin,” Kendrick said. “Geopolitical concerns may push prices lower, yet these very concerns seem to increase Trump's odds, potentially improving Bitcoin's post-election outlook.”
In contrast, “A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial price decline, but we would expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming,” he added.
As for the widespread calls for ‘Uptober’ that led up to Bitcoin’s 9% pullback, market analyst Max noted that this isn’t the first time it occurred and warned that the recent price action is actually a bear trap.
And futures trader Satoshi Flipper highlighted that the bearish attempts to break below $60,000 have not only shown the resilience of Bitcoin bulls but also led to the formation of a triple bottom pattern, which is historically bullish.
Altcoins start to stabilize
While the majority of tokens in the top 200 recorded losses on Thursday, the pullbacks were smaller than the declines witnessed earlier in the week, and the number of gainers notably increased.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Axelar (AXL) led the gainers with an increase of 14.5%, while Aptos (APT) climbed 9.2%, and Stacks (STX) increased by 7.4%. A 12.6% drop for Ethena (ENA) was the largest in the field, followed by an 11.3% decline for EthereumPoW (ETHW) and a 10.5% loss for Beam (BEAM).
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.11 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 57.1%.
KitcoNews
