Gold Surges & Dow Swoons

A week ago, gold had fallen to about $1277, and many investors and analysts turned bearish there.

In contrast, I suggested that the Western gold community should focus on the potential for immediate upside price action.

That’s the scenario I laid out a week ago.

This chart compares the suggested path for gold, with what actually transpired.

Gold rallied to my $1308 - $1310 target area.  The door of possibility is now open to some further strength, with a short term target of about $1320 -$1325.

Note the fabulous buy signal now in play on my Stokeillator (14,3,3 Stochastics series), at the bottom of the chart.

The average upside move that tends to follow a Stokeillator buy signal, is roughly a $50 - $200 rise in the gold price.  While it’s not a good idea to count chickens before they hatch, the technical set-up here is solid.

For many months, my main fundamental themes have been unchanged.  Since the late fall of 2013, I’ve been emphatic that the Fed would taper, and the taper would be bullish for gold. 

On the other hand, I suggested the Fed’s taper would turn the Dow into a “wet noodle”. 

America is in an economic upswing, but I don’t have the same enthusiastic outlook that mainstream analysts do.  They seem to generally believe that America today can grow like the relatively debt-free America of the 1950s did.  In my professional opinion, government red tape is out of control.  The citizens look like they are stuck in government quick sand.  That’s a tough existence.

On the other hand, many gold analysts believe that America’s debt situation is like a hand grenade.  I don’t see it that way.  I see the dollar fading away, like the rotary phone did.  The Dow did rise dramatically over the past few years, but that was only after it almost totally collapsed in 2008.

I’m really not interested in buying the Dow or shorting it, any more than I’m interested trading the rotary phone or the dodo bird.

The Indian nation election has been my second main fundamental big picture focus.  I believe it’s arguably the most bullish event for gold of the past 100 years.

That election began yesterday.  It’s the world’s largest national election, so it’s a long process.  The results should be released around May 16.  Take a hard look into the eyes of the pro-gold frontrunner.

Other than a bullet or vote counting fraud, I don’t think anything can stop Narendra Modi from winning this election.  He is strongly endorsed by all of India’s major bullion and jewellery associations. 

These “titans of ton” are ready to move massive amounts of gold from the Western gold community’s mines, to eager Indian citizen buyers. 

The price range I’ve predicted for gold over the next four to six weeks, and the ultimate upside resolution from that range, is based mainly on waiting for the Indian election to be completed. 

The latest polls suggest Narendra Modi is just five weeks away from becoming the prime minister of the world’s most powerful gold buying community.

In the big picture, I would argue that he will dramatically accelerate the pace of industrialization in India, and thus accelerate Indian citizen demand for gold even more dramatically. 

View what I believe is the most important “gold volume” chart in the world.  The key to increasing the wealth of the world’s most powerful gold buyer class is consistently increasing the nation’s electricity production.  In India, increased citizen wealth is best defined as increased gold buying power. 

The best Western gold stocks stand to outperform all asset classes, in what should be a gold jewellery era.  While some softness can be expected with the Dow under pressure and the Indian election going on, I think some investors may be underestimating the potential for short term price appreciation.

That’s the daily GDX chart.  From the highs near $28, GDX has declined on soft volume into buy-side HSR (horizontal support and resistance) in the $22.80 to $24.20 area.  Now, it’s beginning to rise up and out of that zone.

Note the oversold position of the Stokeillator at the bottom of the chart.  It’s now flashing a buy signal.  In the short term, that’s bullish!

The FOMC minutes are due to be released on Wednesday.  I’m not expecting the Fed to make any dramatic statements about the ongoing taper.  That’s bullish for gold and generally negative for the Dow.  Some analysts are nervous about the possibility of a change in interest rate policy.  If the Fed does raise rates, I expect it to be only by a bit.  Importantly, a rate hike would likely be related to inflationary concerns rather than to any kind of economic growth spike.  That inflation would be exported to Asia, creating even more demand for gold.  In all timeframes, the technical and fundamental lights for gold and gold stocks are bright green!

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Special Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers: Please send me an Email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my free “Gold Options Report”!  It’s possible that Indians engage a gold buying frenzy soon after the election.  That could create a “mini parabola” in the gold price, and create enormous profits for some gold option traders!  I’ll show you the specific options I’m using for this play.

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