Gold Price And Other Markets Via Ewave Perspective

Gold

Gold was sharply lower in the overnight session, reaching a low of 1193.60, at the time that this Post was being written.

This drop eliminates all of our current options from further consideration, and opens up new ones.

Remember that we are working within a huge triangle formation.

Legs of triangles consist of single or multiple three wave and smaller triangle formations. 

The minor parts of the legs are difficult to analyse in real time.

Regardless, we now have the following Options to consider for gold:

Option 1(Double Pattern): We completed our first .a., .b., .c. from 1141.60 to 1232.00, and are now falling in wave .x.. Upon completion for wave .x., we will rally in another .a., .b., .c. pattern to at least the 1232.00 high;

Option 2(Wave .b. Pattern): Wave .a. ran from 1141.60 to 1224.50, and we are now working on wave .b. as follows:

^a^ = 1168.40;

^b^ = 1232.00:

^c^ drop is now to at least the 1168.40 low, to complete all of wave ^c^ and .b.. After completion of wave .b. we will rally in wave .c. to at least the wave .a. high of 1232.00.

The attached daily Gold Chart shows Option 1, but Option 2 is equally valid. So, we have decided to lower our stops back to the 1141.50 area.

No change to our current 17 long positions, risking to 1141.50!

Crude

In our last Weekend Post we believe that we are working on wave *v* of -iv-, which is based on the idea that wave *iv* ended at 57.95.

Within wave *v*, we think that wave ^i^ ended at 60.92 and that we are now correcting in wave ^ii^.

In the overnight session crude reached a low of 59.11, which is still within our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone for the end of wave ^ii^. The 61.8% retracement level is 59.08. We are not sure whether wave ^ii^ is complete at 59.11, however.

We will wait until we are sure that wave ^ii^ is complete before we update our wave ^iii^ of *v* projections.

In the our last Weekend Post we provided the following projections for the end of wave *v*, which remain valid:

*v* = 0.618*i* = 64.17;

*v*= *i* = 68.02;

*v* =1.618*i* = 74.24.

With this market approaching a major downtrend line we are watching the most conservative level of 64.17 as the possible top.

We still have not ruled out the possibility that wave *iv* is becoming more complex and is NOT complete at the 57.95 low, due to that failure of wave ^b^.

S&P500

Our story on the S&P remains unchanged and is getting kind of boring.  But, most big moves happen after these kinds of long and boring periods of trading.  All that is needed is a small catalyst to turn this market lower.  

In the overnight session that S&P was flat.  The bottom line:

We will short 3 sp500 big contracts at 2115, and 5 at 2065.

Stops will be at the ultimate market top, plus 1 point.

USDX

The USDX reached a high of 97.27, in the overnight session. Our current EWave analysis for wave -v- is:

^i^ = 95.94;

^ii^ = 94.89.

^iii^ is now with the following projections:

^iii^ = ^i^ =97.67

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 99.39;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 102.17

With the overnight high we have almost reached our first projected target of 97.67. We expect the USDX to continue higher in wave ^iii^, to at least our 99.39 target.

We do not want to forget what we also said in our last Weekend Post….”We do have a bit of a concern with wave -iv- ended at 93.16, in that it was relatively short in time compared to wave -iii-. This could indicate that wave -iv- is actually not complete at 93.16 and that it could be becoming a triangle or something even more complex. At the moment we have no way of knowing, so we will stay with the idea that wave -iv- ended at 93.16.”

NATGAS

NG was lower in the overnight session reaching 2.84, at the time that this Post was being written. If we are still working on wave .iv. of -i-, we cannot overlap with the wave .i. high of 2.82, which are getting very close to.

A drop to below 2.82 now, would leave a three wave rally in place from 2.48 to 3.11, which would suggest that this market is going to revisit the 2.48 low again.

HUI/GDX

With gold being weak, we expect the HUI/GDX will also be weak today. We have been working on the assumption that wave (b) of our wave b triangle consist of 3 x -a-, -b-, -c- patterns, of which we are working on the third wave -b, with the third wave -c- to go.

If the HUI/GDX breaks below 19.28, then we will need to relook the internal structure of all of wave (b) of our wave b triangle.

Note:    With gold and the HUI/GDX in triangle formations, we need to warn you that trying the accurately analyze the EWave structure of these triangle legs is very difficult in real time. The Captain will be always revising his counts from time to time.  The important thing to remember is the bigger picture and after these triangles play out, both gold and the HUI/GDX are going much higher.

These triangles are likely going to take many months to play out and during that time these markets will become very boring and sideways in nature.

Look how long it is taking the ending diagonal triangle in the S&P500 to playout. But if our analysis is correct, the profits will make all of this waiting worth it, for S&P500 shorts, gold price and gold stock longs!

BARRICK

This stock is acting very well.  After the initial C wave breakout, it’s pulled back to the red trend line.  Like GDX, this stock is going much higher, once GDX breaks upside from the large triangle pattern, and maybe sooner!

NEWMONT

Newmont, from both a regular technical analysis and Ewave perspective, showcases what most gold stocks should look like now.  By the fall of this year, most of them should begin to act more like Newmont.  Fans of big producers shouldn’t be shy about buying Newmont with some decent size on all 10% pullbacks!                                                            

******** 

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

Risk: CAPTAINEWAVE.COM IS AN IMPERSONAL ADVISORY SERVICE. AND THEREFORE, NO CONSIDERATION CAN OR IS MADE TOWARD YOUR FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED WITHIN CAPTAINEWAVE.COM IS NOT TO BE REGARDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, BUT FOR GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. TRADING STOCKS DOES INVOLVE RISK, SO CAUTION MUST ALWAYS BE UTILIZED. WE CANNOT GUARANTEE PROFITS OR FREEDOM FROM LOSS. YOU ASSUME THE ENTIRE COST AND RISK OF ANY TRADING YOU CHOOSE TO UNDERTAKE. YOU ALSO AGREE TO BEAR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND DECISIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CAPTAINEWAVE.COM HAS NOT AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS OR GIVE ADVICE TO YOU OR ANY OF ITS CLIENTS UPON WHICH THEY SHOULD RELY. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM SUGGESTS THAT THE CLIENT/MEMBER TEST ALL INFORMATION AND TRADING METHODOLOGIES PROVIDED AT OUR SITE THROUGH PAPER TRADING OR SOME OTHER FORM OF TESTING. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM, ITS OWNERS, OR ITS REPRESENTATIVES ARE NOT REGISTERED AS SECURITIES BROKER-DEALERS OR INVESTMENT ADVISORS EITHER WITH THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OR WITH ANY STATE SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITY. WE RECOMMEND CONSULTING WITH A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR, BROKER-DEALER, AND/OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU CHOOSE TO INVEST WITH OR WITHOUT SEEKING ADVICE FROM SUCH AN ADVISOR OR ENTITY, THEN ANY CONSEQUENCES RESULTING FROM YOUR INVESTMENTS ARE YOUR SOLE RESPONSIBILITY.

ALL INFORMATION POSTED IS BELIEVED TO COME FROM RELIABLE SOURCES. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY, CORRECTNESS, OR COMPLETENESS OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM ITS SERVICE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS INCURRED. DUE TO THE ELECTRONIC NATURE OF THE INTERNET, THE CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WEBSITE, ITS E-MAIL & DISTRIBUTION SERVICES AND ANY OTHER SUCH "ALERTS" COULD FAIL AT ANY GIVEN TIME. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNAVAILABILITY OF USE OF ITS WEBSITE, NOR UNDELIVERED E-MAILS, OR "ALERTS" DUE TO INTERNET BANDWIDTH PROBLEMS, EQUIPMENT FAILURE, OR ACTS OF GOD. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DOES NOT WARRANT THAT THE TRANSMISSION OF E-MAILS, OR ANY "ALERT" WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR ERROR-FREE. CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR THE ACTS OR OMISSIONS OF ANY THIRD PARTY WITH REGARDS TO CAPTAINEWAVE.COM DELAY OR NON-DELIVERY OF THE CAPTAINEWAVE.COM NIGHTLY EMAILS OR "ALERTS". FURTHER, WE DO NOT RECEIVE ANY FORM OF PAYMENT OR OTHER COMPENSATION FOR PUBLISHING INFORMATION, NEWS, RESEARCH OR ANY OTHER MATERIAL CONCERNING ANY SECURITIES ON OUR SITE OR PUBLISH ANY INFORMATION ON OUR SITE THAT IS INTENDED TO AFFECT OR INFLUENCE THE VALUE OF SECURITIES.

THERE IS NO GUARANTEE PAST PERFORMANCE WILL BE INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO ASSURANCE CAN BE GIVEN THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF CAPTAINEWAVE.COM WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LOSSES. ALL CLIENTS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT THE RESULTS OF A PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE INDICATIVE OF RESULTS IN FUTURE PERIODS. THE RESULTS LISTED AT THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON HYPOTHETICAL TRADES. PLAINLY SPEAKING, THESE TRADES WERE NOT ACTUALLY EXECUTED. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED TRADES DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE OVER OR UNDER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. YOU MAY HAVE DONE BETTER OR WORSE THAN THE RESULTS PORTRAYED. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. NO INDEPENDENT PARTY HAS AUDITED THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE CONTAINED AT THIS WEBSITE, NOR HAS ANY INDEPENDENT PARTY UNDERTAKEN TO CONFIRM THAT THEY REFLECT THE TRADING METHOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTIONS OR CONDITIONS SPECIFIED HEREAFTER. WHILE THE RESULTS PRESENTED AT THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED UPON CERTAIN ASSUMPTIONS BELIEVED TO REFLECT ACTUAL TRADING CONDITIONS, THESE ASSUMPTIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE ALL VARIABLES THAT WILL AFFECT, OR HAVE IN THE PAST AFFECTED, THE EXECUTION OF TRADES INDICATED BY CAPTAINEWAVE.COM. THE HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS ON THIS WEBSITE ARE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CLIENT BUY AND SELLS THE POSITIONS AT THE OPEN PRICE OF THE STOCK. THE SIMULATION ASSUMES PURCHASE AND SALE PRICES BELIEVED TO BE ATTAINABLE. IN ACTUAL TRADING, PRICES RECEIVED MAY OR MAY NOT BE THE SAME AS THE ASSUMED ORDER PRICES.