Technical Analysis Of Major Markets

GOLD

In the overnight session gold reached a high of 1144.00, at the time that this Post was being written. This rally above 1140.30 satisfies our minimum requirements for a completed double 3 wave pattern rally from the 1117.00 low.

In the bigger picture, we are working on the assumption that wave .i. ended at 1169.50 and that the current drop is an incomplete wave .ii..

We believe that wave .ii. looks like:

*a* = 1117.00;

*b* = 1144.00, if complete. Wave *b* should rally between 50 to 61.8% of the wave *a* drop which is 1143.40 and 1149.60, respectively.

*c* drop to at least the wave *a* low of 1117.00.

Our 50 to 61.8% retracement levels are 1121.10 and 1109.50, respectively.

The series of overlapping waves that are visible on the Intraday Chart could also be part of a bullish wave .iii. rally is that is just getting underway.

In that regard, a rally above the 1169.50 high, now, would suggest to us that wave .ii. ended at 1117.00, and gold have already started a sharp rally in wave .iii!

We are long 20 positions, risking to $1072!

CRUDE OIL

It looks like wave *i* ended at 49.33, as shown on the attached Daily Crude Chart!

If that is the case, then we should expect at least a 3 wave corrective setback that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave *i* rally, as the next big event. Those retracement levels are:

50% = 43.54;

61.8% = 42.17.

There is also an outside chance that wave *i* is NOT complete at 49.33, and we should move higher again from here. 

Here’s our view of the long term chart:

In the overnight session crude dropped to a low of 47.03. While we just booked huge profits, we plan to buy again, when we get to the end of wave *ii*!!                                                     

S&P500

The S&P Futures were significantly weaker in the overnight session, dropping by about 40 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

We are either dropping in wave -v-, which should reach at least the wave -iii- low of 1867.01, or we are starting the collapse of the S&P in wave .iii. of -iii-. At the moment it is too early to say.

We booked massive profits on our first load of SP500 short positions, and have now shorted more, ready for what could be a very violent month of September.

Here’s the bottom line for the big US stock market picture:

A major top in the S&P looks to be in at the 2132.84 high and we are now heading lower in a multi-year wave C. Our minimum target is the 666.79 low, reached in 2009.

We are short 5 positions, with 1975 calls for protection!

USDX

The USDX reached a low of 95.21, in the overnight session, before recovering. Our updated count is:

.i. = 93.17;

.ii. = 98.41;

.iii.:

*i* = 92.54;

*ii* = 96.35, if complete. The 61.8% retracement level is 96.17.

*iii*:

^i^ = 95.64;

^ii^ = 96.26

^iii^ is starting now, so we should see the USDX drop very sharply, very soon, if this analysis is correct.

We are short 5 positions, risking to 98.42!

NATGAS

It’s possible that a major low in Ng was achieved at the 2.48 low. If this is the case, then a possible bullish count would be:

-i- = 3.11;

-ii- = 2.56;

-iii-:

.i. = 2.96;

.ii. = 2.62;

.iii. rally is beginning!

EURO

The attempted breakout over the neckline was false, and that has delayed the launch of the massive C wave higher we are predicting. 

XAU/HUI/GDX

Gold stocks are poised to rally much higher, but they aren’t going anywhere until gold itself start its C wave rally.  As noted in the paragraph on gold, there are signs that gold is on the cusp of launching that rally. 

We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD, with no stops!

CLAUDE RESOURCES

Claude is our “bell weather” stock for the entire gold stocks sector.  It’s a small company, but extremely well-managed.  We have a Ewave target of .98, and we think a move above $1169.50 by gold would see Claude hit that target, and see an across the board move higher in the entire gold stock sector!

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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