End Run Stock Smash Looks Imminent - S&P500 Index Update
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The market didn’t waste any time “getting on with it” yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating “end run around the line” smash – if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner.
A few days back we were a little too accommodating in adjusting the upper boundary of the Pennant shown on the 3-month chart below when the index pushed out of the top of it. We shouldn’t have and on this chart we are going back to our original Pennant boundaries, which is important as it enables us to define where the support is at the apex of the Pennant. As you will recall the upside breakout from the Pennant, on the basis of its original boundaries, was regarded with deep suspicion, and it appears to have been the product of manipulation – Fed buying to “paint the tape”, especially as there was no such breakout in other markets like the London FTSE and Tokyo Nikkei, where a parallel Pennant had formed. If so then they may soon end up with egg on their faces.
Other world market indices such as the Europe STOXX600 shown here, and the London FTSE and the Tokio Nikkei, which have similar bear Flags or Pennants completing, did not confirm the false upside breakout from the Pennant on the US S&P500 index before the Fed announcement…
Meanwhile, the Transports, which had a surprisingly big recovery rally after the August plunge, are perfectly positioned to drop away hard after failing at downtrend line resistance with a bearish “Shooting Star” and then breaking down from their recovery uptrend…
The market is at a critical juncture because yesterday it dropped to the support at the apex of the Pennant. If this fails – and it is expected to perhaps after a minor bounce – then we will quickly find ourselves in an “end run” smash situation, which is what happens when a Pennant or Triangle breakout fails in this manner. The market should drop away fast, perhaps like a rock, and the downside target for this move is 1730, which it could easily exceed. However, if it doesn’t slice through the support at the August lows in the 1870 area and sticks there we may ditch half of our Puts there for a good profit, and let the rest ride. We’ll see how it looks when it gets there. With respect to nailing the get out point for Puts, the Transports chart shown above is helpful as it gives us a potential downside target at the lower boundary of its expanding downtrend channel.
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Courtesy of Courtesy of http://www.clivemaund.com
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Clive P. Maund’s interest in markets started when, as an aimless youth searching for direction in his mid-20’s, he inherited some money. Unfortunately it was not enough to live a utopian lifestyle as a playboy or retire very young. Therefore on the advice of his brother, he bought a load of British Petroleum stock, which promptly went up 20% in the space of a few weeks. Clive sold them at the top…which really fired his imagination. The prospect of being able to buy securities and sell them later at a higher price, and make money for doing little or no work was most attractive – and so the quest began, especially as he had been further stoked up by watching from the sidelines with a mixture of fascination and envy as fortunes were made in the roaring gold and silver bull market of the late 70’s.
Clive furthered his education in Technical Analysis or charting by ordering various good books from the US and by applying what he learned at work on an everyday basis. He also obtained the UK Society of Technical Analysts’ Diploma.
The years following 2005 saw the boom phase of the Gold and Silver bull market, until they peaked in late 2011. While there is ongoing debate about whether that was the final high, it is not believed to be because of the continuing global debasement of fiat currency. The bear market since 2011 is viewed as being very similar to the 2-year reaction in the mid-70’s, which was preceded by a powerful advance and was followed by a gigantic parabolic price ramp. Moreover, Precious Metals should come back into their own when the various asset bubbles elsewhere burst, which looks set to happen anytime soon.
Visit Clive at his website: CliveMaund.com
