Markets ARE Manipulated, So Get Out Now!

(Editor’s Note:  Author Avi Gilburt’s shocking title is brilliantly facetious!)

It’s been quiet lately in the world of manipulation.  The metals market has been going higher, and the manipulation theorists have become quiet. 

We have all read article after article for years providing reasons and arguments as to how the metals market has been terribly manipulated, while the metals have gone lower and lower.  Some people believe in this perspective even more than they believe in their own religion, and others have actually made it their religion.

In fact, while GATA has led the charge for the manipulation religious zealots, almost all metals analysts have claimed that the metals market has been manipulated to go down.  Most have held strong beliefs that the metals have been manipulated to the point that price has dropped as much as 70%, as in the case of silver, over the last four years.

But, to me, investing in gold is not a religion. Investing in gold is definitely not about fundamentals. And, investing in gold is not about manipulation. I am truly agnostic when it comes to a “belief” in this market.  I am neither bull nor bear.  Rather, I am an investor seeking to increase my wealth, and I have used my methodology quite successfully to that end.

Personally, I am much more interested in intellectual honesty than I am in trying to prove manipulation.  So, for the sake of intellectual honesty, let’s ask several questions:

1 – How many of the analysts claiming rampant manipulation in the metals market identified the major correction in metals we just experienced the last 4 years?

Over 4 years ago, when gold was entering a parabolic phase right before it struck its multi-year top (for which we accurately called at Elliottwavetrader.net), almost all analysts were cheering it higher, and were giddy with anticipation of certainly eclipsing the $2,000 price point. In fact, they were still suggesting investors continue to “buy, buy, buy,” unable to see the impending market top.

Their inability to see this major top coming certainly made them look less than competent, especially since many of them were very bullish at that high.  In fact, they led the herd to slaughter.

In my humble opinion, this is what led to the birth of the manipulation theories.  And, as the market headed lower and lower, the manipulation baby grew into adulthood.  This was the scapegoat they needed in order to avoid looking ridiculous or having to admit their failure. 

2 – If the market is so manipulated, why have the manipulation theorists continued to suggest investors buy into the market?  

Think about it.  If you were approached by Bernie Madoff, and you knew he was a con artist, would you still give him your money?  Would you suggest to others to give him money?  Of course not.  So, why is the perspective about a supposedly manipulated gold market any different?

If so many are convinced that this market is manipulated, why have we not seen even a single article suggesting to investors to take their money out of this market?  Has anyone ever contemplated the answer to this question?   Has anyone ever posed this question to the manipulation zealots?   Instead, all we hear from these people is that the market is supposedly manipulated, and then they conclude their articles by saying that one should buy into this manipulated market.  

If these people are so certain we are dealing with the Bernie Madoff of markets, would they not do the reasonable and responsible thing and tell all those reading them to take their money out of the market and go elsewhere?  Yet, not one . . . not a single one of these manipulation articles has EVER made this suggestion.  And, you know why they don’t?  Because they really don’t believe in the perspective they are trying to dishonestly sell to their readership.

3 – Now here is the real test:  Since gold has begun this strong rally, have we heard a single claim that the market is still being manipulated?   

The answer is a resounding “NO.” And this proves the extent of the intellectual dishonesty of the manipulation zealots, and why their perspective should not be trusted. 

I have even heard one analyst claim that when the market begins to rise it will be “proof” of the destruction of the manipulation cartel. 

Now, for those of us that actually think for a living, is this not the same thing as saying that if the market goes down, then there is manipulation, and if it goes up, then there is no manipulation?   Now, how honest of a perspective is that?  And, I suggest you summarily ignore anyone who attempts to proffer this type of “logic” to obfuscate their analytical weakness.  What they are really saying was that their analysis was wrong about the market going higher, and they needed an excuse.

I know my perspective is not in the majority, but, from my perspective, it seems that market participants have been more manipulated by these zealots than the price of gold has been manipulated.  These analysts have needed something to which they can point as to why the market crashed when they did not expect it, rather than admit they were wrong, or that their methods are faulty. 

So, the next time you consider giving any credence to the manipulation theorists, look to see if there was even one manipulation theorist that recognized the market was topping back in 2011, or if they were wildly – and wrongly – bullish at the time? I think we all know the answer to that question.  So, could it be that their “theory” is attempting to mask their abject failure between 2011-2015? 

I can assure you that those of us who understand what really moves this market saw the top in 2011, as well as the recent bottom, and have never cared about any of these manipulation theories, because they are not what control this market.

You see, at best, their manipulation evidence is akin to a paper cut. While there may be attempts at manipulation which may be able to move a market by a fraction of a percent, there is no evidence of any manipulation that can move a market as much as 70%.  Yet, they are trying to convince you that their proof of a paper cut is what caused the market to bleed to death. 

In conclusion, to the manipulation zealots, I question you as to why you have continually suggested to those that read your articles to continually buy week after week, even though you have claimed that the market is not honest and is manipulated?  If you were true to your perspective, you would have been suggesting to all those that would listen to take their money out of a market that is not trustworthy.  And, now that the market is rallying strongly, magically, the manipulators have left the market?  If you believe that, I have not one, but several bridges to sell you.