Technical Analysis Of The Markets

Gold

Short-Term Update:

Gold was lower in the overnight session reaching 1232.90 in the overnight session…at the time that this Post was being written. No changes to our current thinking:

For the time being we will assume that all of wave *c* of .iv. is complete at the 1228.50 low, but we cannot rule out the possibility, that wave *c* is going to become more complex. If wave *c* is now compete at the 1228.50 low, then we should expect a wave *d* rally as the next big event in this market.

If wave *c* is not complete at the current low of 1228.80, then it cannot drop below the wave *a* low of 1206.00, for our current triangle formation to remain valid. In the case of wave *d*, it cannot rally above the wave *b* high of 1272.20, for this triangle option to remain valid.

We have updated our count below the match what is shown on the Daily Gold Chart, as follows:

.i. = 1088.30

.ii. = 1046.80;

.iii.:

*i* = 1081.40;

*ii* = 1056.60;

*iii* = 1280.70;

*iv* = 1237.50;

*v* = 1287.80, to complete all of wave .iii.;

.iv. triangle:

*a* = 1206.00;

*b* = 1272.20;

*c* = 1228.50, if complete;

*d* rally is next after wave !c! ends;

*e* drop after wave !d! ends to complete all of our wave .iv.^ triangle.

.v. rally is next, after completion of wave .iv.^, to complete all of wave -i-

-ii- correction will be next, after wave *iii* ends.

Longer-Term Update

Based on the current count, gold is still working on its first impulsive sequence out of its wave (2) of 3 low, and we still have a little ways to go before this sequence is complete.  

Active Big Wave Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00.

Short Term Wave Positions:  Playing the d wave rally on the long side from $1040, with a target of $1265.

Crude

Short-Term Update

Crude dropped a little lower in the overnight session reaching 42.52, at the time that this Post was being written.

We are working on the idea that all or most of wave ^b^ of our irregular type wave *ii* correction is still underway. We are waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^b^ is complete at the 44.49 high. At the moment that Intraday Chart is NOT showing a clear impulsive move down from the 44.49 wave ^b^ high.

We will need crude to start moving sharply lower to confirm that all of wave ^b^ is complete at the current high of 44.49.

Upon completion of wave ^b^ we are expecting a sharp drop in wave ^c^, which has a minimum target of the wave ^a^ low of 35.24, but more likely into our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone, which is shown below.

The other option is that all of wave *ii* ended at the 35.24 low, and we are now heading higher in wave *iii*. Just as a reminder the reason that we are delaying our confirmation that all of wave *ii* ended at the 35.24 low, is that retracement level was less than 50% which is a red flag for us. As shown below the 50% retracement level is 34.27.

The current count for all of wave *ii* is:

^a^ = 35.24;

^b^:

$a$ = 38.29;

$b$ = 36.70;

$c$ = 44.49, if complete, to complete all of wave ^b^.  

^c^ is now underway, with the drop to reach our expected retracement levels shown below, to complete all of wave *ii*.  

Our retracement levels for all of wave *ii* are:

50% = 34.27;

61.8% = 32.33.

No change to our analysis for Suncor. We are expecting that all or most of wave -i- is complete at the 29.39 high and that the next big event in the market will be a corrective drop in wave -ii-. The wave -ii- setback is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracements when we are sure that all of wave -i- is complete.

Long-Term Update

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B was reached at the 26.05 low.

If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

Active Trading Positions: We will go long at 33.25, risking to 30.00.

S&P500 

Short-Term Update:

The S&P Futures are up about 3 points in the overnight session at the time that this Post was being written.  We are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 2108.82 high.

There is still an outside chance that we could still have one more push higher back to the 2108.82 high to complete wave -iii-. A drop below the 2073.65 low, would likely confirm that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 2108.82 high. 

Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect wave -iv- to retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally. Once we are certain that all of wave -iii- is complete we will provide our retracement levels for all of wave -iv. 

Long-Term Update

Wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 1946.70 high, and wave -ii- at 1891.00. We should now be heading to our second projected target for the end of wave -iii- and once that wave is complete, we should expect drop in wave -iv-. Our minimum target for the end of wave (v) is the all-time high of 2134.72.

Active Big Wave Positions: Flat.

Short Term Wave Positions:  Short now. 

USDX

Short-Term Update

The USDX continued to drift lower in the overnight session reaching a low of 94.42, at the time that this Post was being written. No change to our current thinking here.

We were expecting at least one more push to the 95.21 high to complete all of wave !ii!. This may not happen, as the USDX might be heading lower from the 95.18 high, which would be a 3 tick failure.

Upon completion of wave !ii! we expect a sharp drop in wave !iii! of ^iii^ to be the next big event in this market.

Long-Term Trading Update

It looks like all of wave ii was completed at the 100.71 high and we are now heading sharply lower in wave iii.

Active Big Wave Trading Positions: Flat, and tempted to go short.

HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:

Short Term Update

With gold being a little lower, we expect some further weakness in the GDX and our selected gold stocks.

GDX  

As you can see on the 60 Min GDX Chart, we are still expecting further gains within wave .iii. of -v- of (iii), as it now looks like wave .iii. is subdividing as shown below.

Our count for wave -v- of (iii) is as follows:

.i. = 23.06

.ii. = 21.51;

.iii. :

*i* = 23.82;

*ii* = 22.44, and note that the 50% retracement is 22.67.

*iii* rally is next, if wave *ii* is now complete.

Short-Term Wave Trade:  We may go long GDX today, for a quick blast to the upside!

SSO

As you can see on the Daily SSO Chart, we made a new high within our extended wave .i. on Friday reaching 11.03. We are still expecting the end of wave .i. to occur at any time now, after which we expect to see our wave .ii. correction, as the next big event in this market.

Our wave .ii. correction should retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave .i. rally. We will give this market one more day just to confirm that all of wave .i. is complete at the 10.86 high, before we provide the wave .ii. retracement levels.

In the longer term, projections for the end of wave *iii* are:

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 14.07;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 18.49;

*iii* = 4.236*i* = 25.64.

Short-Term Wave Trade:  There’s a potential quick short-side play for SS0 on the wave ii decline, but we’re not going to take it.

KGC

As you can see on this 60 Min KGC Chart, we are still waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^v^ and wave (iii) are complete at the 4.78 high. If that is the case, then we should expect a wave (iv) correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2 % of the entire wave (iii) rally.

We will provide those retracements when we are sure that wave (iii) is complete. It might also be possible that wave ^v^ is still going to extend higher before all of wave (iii) ends.

Our current wave .v. count looks like:

^i^ = 3.58;

^ii^ = 3.21;

^iii^ = 4.49;

^iv^= 3.98;

^v^ = 4.78, if complete, to complete all of wave .v. and (iii).

KGC Short Term Wave Trade: Short a bit of KGC here, aiming at the wave iv target!

Long-Term Update:

The GDX and all of our selected stocks/indices have finally completed their respective wave B lows. We are still expecting higher prices, as we complete our first impulsive sequence out of their respective wave B lows.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops for big core positions!

Free Trades Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple of short term ewave trades for free! 

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Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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