Gold Price Bullish But With A large Dose Of Caution

Gold may be at the start of a considerable bull run. Recently, we suggested that gold was at the start of a new bull market – so far so good, but we need to be cautious. Below our forecast suggests a considerable rise could be about to begin, which fits perfectly with a long-term impulse pattern we have been monitoring for over a year.

Our forecasts now show the uderlying structure we are following to aid in your understanding and to give you markers help in your trading and investment strategy. We remain bulls provided, price can remain above the 20-day moving average - and especially the 50-day moving average as shown in our chart above.

Should price fall below the 50-day briefly, then as long as the 20-day moving average can remain above the 50-day, it would be especially bullish and could present a possible buying opportunity. 

Should price manage to stay above our daily markers, then we have some significant weekly and monthly markers to act as hurdles that gold will need to clear to continue to remain in a bullish trend to confirm this immediate bullish structural pattern.

Currently, everything is in alignement for this bullish pattern to play out. However, gold has a habit of rising in a smooth and controlled manner.  Consequently, a significant rise at this stage whilst possible and currently on track would be out of character in terms of structure and past history.

So we are cautious on a longer-term basis, because a significant advance at this stage would represent a rare event in terms of pattern structure. Additionally, a significant event in terms of global financial events, it would probably lead to a peak within a couple of years, which whilst exciting may dissapoint some of the more optimistic bulls.

So with that in mind we offer an alternative forecast pattern, which would see a further decline in to 2017 before a final low and the start of a bull leg that would last for over a decade and lead to a significant rise in price this pattern would be more in tune with gold’s past history.

Our bearish forecast pattern above shows that should we begin to see a decline, possibly a double top over the next week or so, then the bears will have to take out the 20 and 50-day moving averages first - and then take the 20-day below the 50-day moving average, we think that would be significant.  If our 2017 low were to materialise there should be plenty of warning with at least a bounce before we drop.

We remain long-term gold bulls and our longer-term forecast patterns give us the confidence to not worry about any decline that may come first; it would represent a significant buying opportunity and a bigger base for an even bigger price rise than our more immediate bull scenario would be able to manage.

As with all our forecasts we offer a road map for the trader and investor to monitor and to include in their general strategy. Our subscribers also get to see our longer-term weekly and monthly forecasts which add even more information and significant weekly and monthly markers to give you an even greater edge.  

You can follow our free forecasts on our web site, we post regularly on our twitter account which is embedded on our home page. We use our moving average momentum analysis technique which coupled with our proprietary software, analyses each market we cover looking for probable patterns.

Because we now publish the underlying patterns our subscribers get unrivalled access to some of the most unique forecast charts available, and get a trading and investment edge over their competitors.

Our forecasts are fractal patterns that last for months and years, we monitor the development of these probable patterns continually to ensure we are on track. Our methodology is to create a most probable long-term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

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You can read more about our unique foresting system and moving average momentum analysis at our website: http://www.kenticehurst.com