Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, S&P500 And GDX

Gold

Short-Term Update

 

Gold was moderately higher in yesterday’s day session - as it continued moving higher in the overnight session reaching a high of 1360.80 at the time that this Post was being written.    

In spite of this current rally, we doubt that gold is about to break out to new highs…at least for now!

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart, since the wave !i! high of 1362.60 was made this market shows a series of overlapping waves which suggests an incomplete correction to us, NOT an new impulsive wave sequence higher.

Our current triangle formation within the wave $b$ leg will remain valid unless the high at 1377.50 is exceeded.

This triangle could just be extending. We expect that gold is going to revisit the 1308.0 low one more time before all of wave $c$ and wave !ii! end.  

Upon completion of wave $ii$ we expect a very sharp wave $iii$ rally, as the next big event in this market!

Our updated count for wave *v* is:

^i^ = 1318.90;

^ii^ =1252.50. 

^iii^:

!i! = 1362.50;

!ii!:

$a$ = 1308.00:

$b$ triangle = 1363.60;

$c$ is still underway with a minimum target of 1308.00, to complete all of wave !ii!.

!iii! rally is next after wave !ii! ends.

Our current projections for the end of wave ^iii^ of *v* as follows:

^iii^ = 1.618^ = 1442.80

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1516.20

Longer-Term Update

 

Gold is fast approaching the major red downtrend line shown on the attached Long Term Gold Chart, which the bears are trying to defend.  

A break and close above that line would likely see gold move sharply higher.

Based on the current count, gold is still working on its first impulsive sequence out of its wave (2) of 3 low, and we still have a little way to go before this sequence is complete.

Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

S&P500

Short-Term Update:

The S&P500 was higher in yesterday’s day session - and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 3 points at the time that this Post was being written.  

We have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave *v*, although we still have a projection for the end of wave .iii. at the 2263.37 level.

Based on the current wave patterns that we see on the Intraday Chart, we still expect more upside within the final subdivisions that form part of wave *v* and all of wave .iii..

However, we need to be on guard now for the end of wave *v* and all of wave .iii., to occur at any time now. Upon completion of wave .iii. we expect a wave .iv. correction that will retrace between 24% to 38% of the entire wave .iii. rally. We will provide those retracement levels when all of wave .iii. is complete. 

We will hold our long positions through the wave .iv. correction.                                                                                               

Long-Term Update

Wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 1946.70 high; wave -ii- at 1891.00, and wave -iii- at 2111.05. Wave -iv- looks to be complete at the 1991.62 low, and we now expect one more rally in wave -v- to new record highs. 

Active Trading Positions: Long with 2150 puts as stops.

GDX

Short-Term Update

 

The GDX was moderately lower in yesterday’s day session.  

As you can see on the Daily GDX Chart we now believe that we are headed back to at least the 30.06 low and likely into our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone before all of wave *ii* ends.

This drop should correspond to our expected drop in gold.     

Our current count for count for all of wave iii is:

(i) = 27.03;

(ii) = 24.80;

(iii):

-i- = 30.73;

-ii- = 27.45;

-iii-:

*i* = 31.64;

*ii* is still underway;

*iii* rally is next after wave *ii* ends.

Projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 37.79.

Long-Term Update

We have now started to rally in a subdividing wave (iii) of iii, which should see the GDX at least reach the 37.79 level, before it ends.

We also have much higher projections also. Wave -iii-of (iii) of iii is usually the most powerful wave in an impulsive sequence. Our (iii)=4.236(i) projection is 45.81.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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Free Trades Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free!

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