REDUX: Beware the Ides of March

Friday was the Ides of March. In January based on our Fibonacci Ellipses as published in "Beware the Ides of March" , we forcasted that the S&P 500 would  rise to 1562 on March 15th, 2013. The result on the Ides of March was 1563.62. Clearly our little practiced tool of Fibonacci Ellipses must  be reckoned with!

We were very specific when we spelled out the following:

"Wondering when this delusional rally will end? Where is the top and when will it be in?

There is one technical topping tool that has proven very effective in answering this question with a fair degree of accuracy. It is the application of the uncommonly used Fibonacci Ellipse.

In last month's Trigger$ we predicted the January  rally within what we believed to be the controlling Fibonacci Ellipse. Now we need to view what that Fibonacci Ellipses is telling us regarding what is ahead.

We are very close to a short term top, but we are not quite there yet. Traders  need to understand that this short term top is not the Intermediate / Long Term top we have been calling for and still expect it to occur in the proximity of  the March 15th Quadruple witch.  Beware the Ides of March. "

NICE CALL , BUT WHAT IS NEXT?

We now expect a period of SIGNIFIGANTLY heighted volatility between the Ides of March and mid April. This is expected based on the achievement of our Fibonacci Time Extensions as we complete the right shoulder of our Head and Shoulder pattern.

THE 18 MONTH VIEW-  A MAJOR LONG TERM RIGHT SHOULDER FORMATION PATTERN

 
FIBONACCI TIME EXTENSIONS

Our original MACRO ANALYTICS timing predictions (shown below) were based on our Fibonacci Time Extensions. This is a separate analysis from Fibonacci Ellipses but must 'plug' or we fail the test of symmetry which chaos and fractal theory dictate. We have a a very tight correlation that in turn matches fibonacci clusters and Bradley turn cycle dates.

Defining Chart #1 - "Delusional Distortion" Expectations

We drew "Defining Chart #1" below in early summer 2012, based on our expectations for Monetary Policy responses to weakening global growth. Our September call for QE3 and a 'Bazooka' out of the ECB proved accurate as we head towards our upper H".
 Defining Chart #2 - Long Term

Our proprietary analytics are strongly showing the potential for higher nominal highs through the convergence and alignment of a number of technical studies.

-    A Gann target which aligns with a completed Megaphone Top

-    A trend line that centers the Gann Analysis,

-    A decade long Fibonacci Time extension that centers a Gann Analysis

LIKELY ENDING MEGAPHONE PATTERNS

(We laid this out in June 2011 as one of two alternatives expected)
 Defining Chart #3 - Short Term

Our current chart formation reflects the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is itself the Right Shoulder of a major Long Term Head & Shoulders formation.

Here is OUR CURRENT CHART

Our MACRO charts on Central Bank Expansion and the signals from the Gold market suggests to us that our Ellipse projections are still valid.

We expect a major scare in Q2 2013 with a counter rally in later 2013 based on unprecedented globally coordinated central bank monetization as part of post Quantitative Easing called OMF (Overt Monetary Funding).

Get up to speed at MACRO ANALYTICS which can be found at GordonTLong.com.

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Good luck, and good trading.

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Gordon T Long

Publisher & Editor

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2012 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.