Gold Forecast: The Bull Market is Just Getting Started

• The Fed almost made it a whole year without printing money.

• Gold is set to outperform the S&P 500 for several years.

• The real bull market starts once gold breaks above $2100.

Fed Balance Sheet 

The Federal Reserve balance sheet soared to almost $9 trillion during covid. They were slowly winding down assets until banks started failing. Their balance sheet just ticked higher to $8.73 trillion - they almost made it a whole year without printing money.

source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

The Fed balance sheet seems to have a reoccurring theme: EVER EXPANDING

• At the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, the Fed's balance sheet was just $900 billion. 

• Bernanke created Quantitative Easing (QE), doubling total assets to $2.25 trillion.

• From 2008 to 2015, it jumped to $4.5 trillion under the QE-Infinity program. 

• Through covid it soared to nearly $9 trillion.

• If it keeps doubling every seven years, total assets could reach $18 trillion by 2028 and $36 trillion by 2035. 

How Does This End?

With each crisis, the Fed changes the rules and does what's necessary to save the markets. In 2020 they purchased junk bonds, which broke their mandate. And now they are backstopping regional banks and practically guaranteeing all deposits. What's next? Will Powell cut everyone a check that loses $1500 at the craps table in Vegas? I don't know how this will end, but I suspect the Dollar is the relief valve, and Fed will probably be dissolved.

source: https://despair.com/products/government

GOLD VERSUS S&P 500 

Below is a chart of gold compared to the S&P 500. When the trend is rising, gold is outperforming stocks. When falling – stocks are winning. We see that gold leads for about a decade, and then stocks outperform. I think gold bottomed out versus stocks in 2021, and prices should outperform significantly into 2031. 

• Gold Outperformed the S&P 500 20x from 1970 to 1980. 

• From 1980 to 2000, gold lost 97% of its value to the S&P 500. 

• Gold Outperformed the S&P 500 9x from 2001 to 2011. 

• From 2011 to 2021, gold lost 75% of its value to the S&P 500. 

• Will Gold Outperform the S&P 500 from 2021 to 2031?

WHEN WILL GOLD BREAKOUT

Gold soared to $2080 during the covid scare and prices have been consolidating for over 2 years. This cycle is playing out similar to 2018. We are running about a month behind, so we may not see a decisive breakout until July. The real bull market in gold will start once prices break decisively above $2100, in my opinion.

GOLD DAILY: Gold made a new closing high, and prices could break above last year's $2078.80 high in the coming weeks. The headwind of higher interest rates lessened; we may finally see a sustained uptrend. 

Conclusion

The Fed will likely keep putting out spot fires as needed, but I don't see them cutting rates unless things get bad.

The bull market in gold will switch from the stealth phase to the more bullish secular phase in 2023 and 2024.

When gold finally breaks above $2000 – it may never look back.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more charts and regular updates, please visit here.

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