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A Reminder From the 3 Month T-bill and 2 yr Yield

Founder & Editor @ NFTRH.com
July 24, 2023

The 3 month T-bill yield is still excessively divergent from the 2 year Treasury yield

If the history of this chart holds true that means that despite whatever bullish fun we are having now, there is a signal in play (3 month T-bill yield grossly exceeds the 2 year Treasury yield) that would trigger a new bear market in stocks within about 1.5 years of the signal’s origin.

We are now about a year in to the current signal as SPX rises to correct its bear market false start last year.

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Gary Tanashian is founder and editor of the popular Notes from the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH). Gary successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic realities through various economic cycles. The natural progression from this experience is an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.


A medical study in France during the early twentieth century suggests that gold is an effective treatment for rheumatoid arthritis.
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