Gold SWOT: Gold Is in the Middle of a Record-Setting Rally

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the past week was palladium, up 7.17%, which appeared to be triggered by massive short covering, as reported by Bloomberg.  The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported that supplies of recycled platinum have fallen to the lowest point since records began in 2014. They attribute the fall in the recycling stocks largely to a strong crackdown in China on catalytic converter thefts, which has also been a factor in North America. The platinum market slipped into a deficit last year, which the WPIC expects to continue into 2024.
• According to Bloomberg, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for a sixteenth straight month in February, extending a long buying spree that’s helped to support the precious metal’s surge to a record high. Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by about 390,000 troy ounces last month, according to official data released Thursday.
• According to Bloomberg, gold - a safe-haven asset that generally thrives during times of lower interest rates and geopolitical upheaval — is understandably having a moment. As investors bet the Federal Reserve will trim rates in June following a slew of mixed U.S. data reports, the precious metal that is stored in both federal depositories and individuals’ sock drawers is now at an all-time high.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the past week was platinum, but still up 3.03%, on expected production cuts from the producers as they re-benchmark their costs to produce. According to Bloomberg, Sibanye Stillwater reported a $2 billion loss last year, after taking an impairment against its U.S. palladium mine. The company joined its South African rivals – Anglo American Platinum Ltd. and Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. – in announcing a dramatic slump in earnings as the prices of platinum, palladium and rhodium declined sharply last year. 
• According to Scotia, Fresnillo’s EBITDA of $305 million in the second half of 2023 came in 14% below the consensus at $356 million. Full-year EBITDA contracted 13% year-over-year in 2023 to $656 million despite a 10% revenue increase, a clear indication of cost deterioration across the company’s operations.
• According to BMO, Argonaut Gold Inc. released fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EPS of -$0.02, below consensus ($0.00). The miss versus consensus was mainly driven by higher costs, not surprising given the challenging start at Magino due to unplanned plant shut-downs. Argonaut noted that it has received multiple term sheets to refinance and potentially upsize its existing $250 million term loan and revolver.

Opportunities

• According to Canaccord, Hochschild Mining has announced that its 100% owned subsidiary Amarillo Mineracao has entered an option to acquire a 100% stake in the Monte do Carmo project in Brazil from Cerrado Gold.
• According to Bloomberg, Ramelius Resources is in exclusive due diligence to acquire Toronto-listed WA gold miner Karora Resources, which it hopes will add a new production center to replace its ageing Edna May asset. Ramelius boss Mark Zeptner will spend $700 million to $1 billion for the acquisition.
• According to BMO, palladium prices had a 12% rise to >$1,050 per ounce, reversing all the losses seen over 2024 to date. This comes amid some concern over the ongoing viability of U.S. operations, plus growing expectations of supply cuts in South Africa. Moreover, covering of the extended short positions in the palladium futures market undoubtedly augmented the gains.

Threats

• Artemis Gold announced an accelerated study emphasizes the potential scale of Blackwater, with an upsized expansion helping to bring forward production and cash flow. They estimate the accelerated expansion could provide a 30% uplift in output through 2035 at 10% lower costs. Sounds like the engineering plan is to expand the currently-in-construction 6 Mtpa to an annual processing capacity of 25 Mtpa which should improve the future valuation, but it’s a little too early to factor into the Artemis valuation currently, as first gold pour is expected in the second half of 2024.
• According to Bloomberg, the Turkish unit of SSR Mining Inc. will pay for all cleanup costs following a landslide at its Copler gold mine in eastern Turkey, a top government official said, without citing a specific figure. Speaking to Bloomberg after a cabinet meeting late Monday in Ankara, Energy & Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the costs will include the removal of about 10 million tons of waste soil.
• According to Bloomberg, South Africa’s platinum producers are in crisis, as slumping metal prices force jobs cuts and erode profits. The nation’s platinum sector — which accounts for about 70% of global output — has been a key export industry and generates jobs for hundreds of thousands of people in a country with one of the world’s highest unemployment rates.

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