Gold Price Forecast: New All-Time Highs But No Sign of a Top

The gold price hit a new record high this week, rising up to $2,942 in the spot market on February 10. Gold is now up 11% for the new year, after rising over 27% in 2024.

After such a run, with gold just below the key $3,000 per ounce level, one might wonder if the market is close to forming a top.

In this instance – incredibly – we still do not see signs of a top. In fact, numerous sentiment indicators suggest gold still has further room to run in 2025 - 2026.

Gold New Record… But Sentiment Subdued

Below we show the gold price on top, with interest in the exact phrase “gold price” shown immediately below it, from 2020 through present.

Note how gold consolidated from 2020 – 2024 between $1,680 - $2,075 per ounce, before finally breaking out in March 2024 (red highlight).

Since breaking out, gold has advanced over $800 or 40% to the recent price of $2,942.

However, note that below the gold price, interest in the very phrase “gold price” as measured by Google Analytics remains 25% below the level that was witnessed at the 2020 peak.

What this means is that gold is advancing via high-powered buying, mostly coming from world central banks and sovereign wealth funds. Meanwhile, the average western investor who seeks information about the gold market by searching online is still not participating at a level that would be suggestive of a peak in the market.

Individual investors – as a net sum – tend to follow momentum, and they tend to be late to arrive to a given market. They tend to enter close to significant peaks, as we can see from the rapid surge in search queries for “gold price” just prior to the 2020 precious metals top – which was a four-year peak for the market.

Since gold has been rising in a “stealth” bull market, with much less interest than even four years ago (despite prices over $800 higher), we can conclude that sentiment is not sufficiently bullish yet in the sector to mark a significant precious metals top.

Gold still has further to run before it is fully saturated by mainstream interest.

Gold Stock Valuations Still Depressed

As a continuation of the above theme, let us examine the same comparison, but this time with the other component of the gold sector: gold stocks.

Below we show the gold price on top, with interest in the phrase “gold stocks” immediately below, from 2020 through present.

Again, note the divergence between the gold price, which has risen $800 or 40% since 2020, and interest in gold stocks, which has collapsed by 70% over the same period.

We know that peak interest in gold stocks at the 100 level corresponded with a four-year top in the gold market in 2020.

What does the current level of interest, down 70% from the peak, suggest?

It suggests that interest amongst mainstream western investors is not anywhere near bullish enough to mark a long-term precious metals top.

Again, gold is rising in a “stealth” bull market, characterized by purchases out of world central banks and select large institutions.

There is very little interest in gold amongst average investors – and certainly not enough to mark a significant peak in the market.

Gold Stock Valuations Reflect Disinterest

Below we show the ratio between gold stocks and gold itself from 2015 through present.

As should be expected with interest in gold down 25% but interest in gold stocks down 70% from peak levels, this ratio has sunk to near bottom levels as per historical valuation for the gold miners:

Note that the previous two times that this ratio bottomed (Miners Bottom Zone), in 2015 and 2020, gold stocks outperformed the gold price itself by 133% and 95%, respectively.

The only difference between the previous two cycles and today is that in 2015 and 2020, the gold price was at major low itself.

Now, we have gold at an all-time record high above $2,900, but the ratio at levels suggestive of a major bottom in gold stocks! This has never happened before in the last decade of record keeping, and it is reflective of the sentiment indicators noted above, which remain subdued.

This is a golden opportunity for investors to accumulate gold stocks at depressed valuations, with gold itself in record high territory.

Takeaway on Gold Price

Gold is now witnessing new all-time record highs in price on a daily basis.

However, this is a “stealth” bull market, coming largely from buying by major world central banks and sovereign wealth funds.

Sentiment data across the sector shows that the average investor interest is still nowhere near where it was back in 2020, the last major gold peak.

Major gold peaks coincide with optimistic sentiment, not depressed sentiment as we are currently witnessing.

Gold, at nearly $3,000 per ounce, is not yet at a cyclical peak. Further gains lie ahead in 2025 - 2026.

For investors who may be hesitant to want to part with nearly $3,000 US dollars for a single gold coin, valuation data suggests that gold mining stocks may outpace the gain in gold over the next phase of the advance.

At www.iGoldAdvisor.com we publish independent research on the exact gold companies that we are investing in, for investors who would like to follow along with our decisions. We also cover silver, the US dollar, and related commodity markets which impact the precious metals so that investors may be fully informed.

This is not the time to sleep on the gold market. It is said that 90% of the gains come in the last 10% of the time in gold bull markets… and we may be just on the verge of that phase now.

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