Beware the Ides of March — ‘Tis Gold Update No. 800!

Long-time (really long-time) readers of The Gold Update know that our microphones are just about everywhere as was the case in Rome’s Curia Pompeia (a little Latin lingo there) on this day in 44 B.C.  Let’s roll the tape:

• Soothsayer:  “Hail Caesar!”
• Julius Caesar:  “Whaddya got, Soothie…”
• Soothsayer:  “We who embrace Caesar, whose name is magnificent, whose presence is ever-accessible, who makes our world wonderful, we turn our hearts to thee, oh Caesar…”
• Julius Caesar:  “Oh just get on with it, Soothie…”
• Soothsayer:  “Oh great Caesar!  Beware the Ides of March!  For on this very day 2,068 years hence shall come the 800th consecutive Saturday edition of The Gold Update!”
• Julius Caesar:  “Soothie…  Get out!”

Following which of course out came the long knives and the rest — as ’tis said — is “histoire”.

Welcome to the 800th Gold Update, our having missed nary a Saturday throughout.  ‘Tis again a “milestone” for us, and we shan’t forget those who’ve substantively got us here, most notably the Mighty Moriarty of 321Gold, along with Goldseiten, Gold-Eagle, Kitco, Investing.com, TalkMarkets, GoldSeek and YOU: the most savvy Gold readers ’round the world.  Our truly heartfelt thanks to everyone.

Moreover, welcome to Golden Goal Two, such “milestone” level of 3000 by the April futures contract having been reached this past Thursday evening @ 20:49 GMT with spot Gold then following yesterday (Friday) morning @ 10:10 GMT.  A doubly-beautiful thAng!

Further, a hardened aspect of The Gold Update these many years is that when we’re way wrong, we so say!  In this case, we’ve of late been anticipating Gold reaching lower price levels, certainly so from the week ending 28 February wherein Gold high-to-low fell -130 points from 2974 to 2844.  Instead, 3000 was just tapped.

Indeed, whilst our Golden Goal Three for the year is still a projected a high of 3262, we’ve this reminder (from 04 January) as to Gold’s potential downside :  “…applying the ‘expected yearly trading range’ method, the year’s low approximates…2507…”  And should that eventuate, our sense remains it comes prior to 3262 “Goo goo g’ joob” –[Lennon, ’67].

But should we remain wrong (i.e. Gold not materially decline en route), ‘twould be great, for 3262 shall then appear in hindsight as having been a modest mandate.

Either way, Gold settled yesterday at 2994 in reaching a new All-Time High of 3017, the Monday-Friday net gain both by points (+76) and percentage (+2.6%) being the best of the year’s 11 weeks-to-date, within which (as aforenoted) only one has been down.

“Which begs the question mmb, is that an 11-week record?  Congrats on 800 by the way…”

Thanks dear Squire:  we couldn’t have made it this far without you.  As for similar 11-week periods with but one (or even none) as down, on a mutually-exclusive basis ’tis happened century-to-date on seven other occasions, the prior case being within the grips of COVID from the weeks ending 29 May 2020 through 07 August 2020.  Gold for that 11-week stint posted a net gain of +18.0%.  This time ’round ’tis +13.5%.  Regardless, as to “The Now”, all looks great in GoldLand:

And by the above weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, the rightmost blue-dotted parabolic Long trend is now eight weeks in duration, the “flip-to-Short” level of 2760 affording Gold 234 points of wiggle room, (albeit the blue dots are now swiftly speeding upward at a rate of +42 points per week).  Still, by the above graphic, again we say, “Gold is looking as good as it gets!”

However:  in measuring Gold by its smooth valuation line, price’s movement relative to those of the other four primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Oil / S&P 500) presently appears some +122 points “high” above that smooth grey line…

…to which price always returns, acknowledging ‘natch that the smooth line itself is in ascent.  So again, some price descent many be in near-term order.  But of broader import — per the opening Gold Scoreboard — price today at 2994 is -807 points beneath the Dollar debasement appraisal of 3801.  Or apropos of this 800th missive, let’s reprise the deserved decree from late great Richard Russell:  “There’s never a bad time to buy Gold!”  Price upon his 20 November 2015 passing was 1077:  wherever in the Gold ether he now is,  the +180% 10-year gain must be most satisfying.

But suddenly not so satisfying is the state of the StateSide economy, which by the Economic Barometer across the past two weeks has suffered a bit of a “whoopsie…” (technical term).  The marked month-over-month braking in the pace of inflation suggests a slowing of activity, although February’s “Fed-favoured” read via Personal Consumption Expenditures is still two weeks away.  But initially for the month at both the headline and core readings, the Consumer Price Index substantially slowed, whilst the Producer Price Index actually hinted at deflation, the headline number’s pace at zero and that for the core coming in negative.  Does that mean the regular stuff yer now buyin’ this month is cheaper?  Well, maybe not, as the University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for March just suffered its third-worst month-over-month drop since COVID.  “Whoopsie!” indeed.  Here’s the Econ Baro:

Specific to the precious metals, ’tis been anything but “Whoopsie!” in turning to our two-panel graphic of Gold’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left with those for Silver on the right.  For both markets, their respective “Baby Blues” of day-to-day trend consistency just recently breached below the 0% axes, only to then reverse back upward as the 21-day downtrends came to an end:

In next turning to the 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), the standout feature is the yellow metal depicting “A dearth of volume support” which is created when price rapidly covers a large range of points.  ‘Tis merely something of which to be aware should price suddenly skid back down to the 2924 volume-dominant support level.  As for the white metal, she sports a bit of a volume gap from her present 34.35 price down to 33.70, but with firmer support in the 33.20-32.90 zone as labeled:

Thus there we are for No. 800.  It being a “milestone” for us in tandem with Golden Goal Two of price having achieved the 3000 “milestone”, let’s go to the stack.  Therein note:  nothing is listed in the 2800s.  So swift has been Gold’s recent rise, that after having settled a total of 59 days in the 2600s and then 30 days in the 2700s, there’ve been but 11 settles in the 2800s, (just in case you’re scoring at home).  Indeed, a word to the wise is sufficient.  (What that means for you WestPalmBeachers down there is don’t be surprised should selling ensue).  Here’s the stack:

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3801
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
2025’s High:  3017 (14 March 2025)
10-Session directional range:  up to 3017 (from 2870) = +147 points or +5.1%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3001 (13 March 2025)
Trading Resistance:  2996
Gold Currently:  2994, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  43 points)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  2930
Trading Support:  per the Profile, nothing substantive until 2924
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short:  2760
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2479 and rising
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

To close it out, we again (as is on occasion a Gold Update tradition) grin over further “FinMedia Freakout!”.  Our FinMedia friends pride themselves on their technical stock market expertise of which they know not just one, but two measures.  They are called “The 200-day Moving Average” and “The 10% Correction”.

In this case, ’tis the latter which came to the fore across this past Thursday’s FinMedia spectrum as a result of the S&P 500 having reached down -10% from its recent all-time high of 6148, (the Index today at 5639).  Rife was the air with panicky hysteria!  From one FinMedia page to the next, the leading heading was nearly identical:  “S&P 500 Enters Correction”.  (Note:  here at deMeadville, the correction commenced three weeks ago upon the S&P futures crossing below their own smooth valuation line as featured daily at the website, hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge).

The good news is, by the time the FinMedia typically figures this out, ’tis oft a fabulous buy signal.  Indeed prior to yesterday’s +117-point S&P rally, we internally texted it ought be bought.  Boom!  Following which came this hilarious rationale courtesy of CNBC:  “Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being.”  (We’re curious as to how may hours may be the “time being”).  The Ides of March, indeed.  On verra…

That stated, we still view the S&P as treacherously overvalued en route to a down year.  But counter to that remains the question:  “Where then is COVID’s $7T ‘relief fund’ that all ended up in the stock market gonna go?”

“Which again begs the obvious question, right mmb?”

Better yet, Squire, as a statement:  How about into Gold!

Cheers!

  …m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

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