Daniel R. Amerman, CFA
Daniel R. Amerman, CFA Articles
The traditional form of bank failure is a bank run. Bank runs have happened over and over again over the centuries, and they have taken down many banks and banking systems. In March of 2023, we saw bank runs take down three banks in quick...
There are multiple threats to the financial system that are currently in play, and one of the biggest is the risk of a Eurodollar crisis or collapse. The world had two close calls with systemic bank failures in 2008, one was derivatives...
A major financial collapse occurred the weekend of March 11th - but it wasn't Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank. After the Financial Crisis of 2008, the leading economic powers of the world spent years studying what went wrong, they...
There are a lot of theories out there about what will happen with interest rates, inflation and a recession in 2023. If we look at the strongly inverted yield curve for Treasury securities, with the 10 year Treasury currently yielding...
As we enter 2023, there are widespread hopes that inflation will be vanquished, and that interest rates will fall rapidly as the Federal Reserve "pivots". If the Fed goes down this path, there are expectations that the markets will soar...
The rolling average 3-month rate of inflation in the United States has now reached 10.7%. This is an important number as it represents the first time that we have a full three months of inflation data - March, April, and May - that...
The Nasdaq stock index officially entered the bear market stage as of late April of 2022, with prices down 23% from its November 2021 high. These losses have continued into May, reaching 29.3% by May 20, 2022. The S&P 500 is now also...
An already high rate of inflation is almost certainly in the process of getting much worse, as the Ukraine War and the sanctions thereon are likely to lead to global shortages of many things, including energy, food, and the fertilizer to...
We now have the highest rates of inflation in forty years - but this inflation is much more painful than it was forty years ago.
Supply chain disruptions have created a scarcity of goods in some categories. At the same time, the U.S. government continues to flood the economy with dollars, trying to keep spending up and the economy out of recession. This combination...
