2017 Asset Allocation Quiz: Who's Making Money And Who's Just Shilling?

Pop quiz, name the top performing asset class of thus far this year?

If you guessed US stocks or bonds, you’re wrong. The top performing asset class hands down is Emerging Market stocks, followed by Gold, THEN the S&P500, following by Treasuries and finally, Oil.

Using this as a framework, let’s ask ourselves, “what macro environment would cause these respective performances? What would induce a sharp rally in Emerging Market Stocks and Gold… with US stocks trailing and Oil down sharply?”

Oil is telling us that growth is actually very weak, while Gold and Emerging markets and bonds are telling us inflation is picking up (a weak $USD sends Gold and Ems higher while it would depress bonds).

Weak growth and higher inflation… that’s called STAG-flation.

Meanwhile, the financial media is proclaiming that 2017 will be the year of major $USD strength and a roaring US economy.

Well, the markets argue otherwise. Who do you think knows more…some “guru” on CNBC or the collective intelligence of hundreds of millions of investors?

Indeed, by the look of things, stocks could be heading for a crash in the next few weeks. Remember, stocks LOVE inflation at the beginning (think the last 12 months), but eventually it erodes profit margins and forces them down.

Buckle up.

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research