Counter Trend Rally In A Bear Market, GDX Low Near?

January 20^th may have been an important intermediate bottom in the stock market, but the bear market is still growling. January 20^th was exactly 100 trading days from the August 24^th low.  The 100 trading low has a variance of +/- 15%.  Oddly, the 16 TD low, which arrived on January 11 is still due in early February along with a Bradley turn (Feb 3-5).  The next top of import is due January 25 with the moon in Leo/Virgo.  It is also the 16 trading top +1 TD.  Last moon cycles saw the market run down 8 TD’s to the moon in Sag/Cap (due Feb 4^th). January 26 and 27 have the moon in Virgo, so at least those days should be down. Feb 1 is another day which should be down based on the negative astros on Jan 29 and over the weekend.

 The e-wave look is also irregular since Jan 13th and not impulsive at all, which means we may make new lows in early February (although this is not certain). I think the best we can hope for is a lot of chop going into early February and perhaps higher prices into the second week of February before retesting the lows late in the month and then a strong countertrend rally into early April.  Keep in mind that these are countertrend rallies. I believe this is a bear market that has much further to go to the downside!

As far as GDX is concerned, I believe we are close to bottoming on the 20 week lows due next week. The chart below is the worst case scenario with a move to $11.18 by week’s end, but I believe the best case scenario has GDX tagging near to $12.14 by Jan 27^th.

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Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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