Grasping at Straws

As I have pointed out to you in the last few missives, BULLISHNESS dies hard and is typical when a market is in the process of forming a Major Top. Good news is overly celebrated and bad news is overlooked as everyone is anxious to look past the divide while excusing faults and readily accepting irrational explanations. Take for example:

UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS

Companies large and small, especially if they intend to stay in business are reluctant to lay-off workers as it is very difficult to replace quality workers. So, if they are the slightest bit hopeful, they do their best to hang on to their employees. Believe it or not, by far the greatest majority of companies, contrary to the ranting and raving of Socialists, really do care about their workers and families. All good management knows that their workers are their most valuable asset. This means that UNEMPLOYMENT figures are a lagging indicator and cannot be relied upon when considering whether or not we are beginning a recession, even if you accept the government “seasonally adjusted” figures.

The Media, advertising agencies, the Government and especially Wall Street and all the Financial Channels are wedded to a Bull Market. Their lifeblood depends on one, So be extra careful when listening to the likes of Larry Kudlow et al. Not only will they message and twist the facts, but are prone to invent facts that are just not in evidence.

POLITICS

Like it or not politics has a very strong influence on the economy although there are always a delay between the passing of legislation and its ultimate effect. The economy works best when there is a strong balance of power so that all legislation is thoroughly debated and hopefully a well thought out reasonable compromise, leaving out the extremes on both sides, is worked out. It looks like a completely one-sided Government will be coming to power in 2009. Even if McCain is elected, the debate will always be between the Left, the Far Left and the Extreme left. Similar to what occurred during the 1930’s when a left leaning Republican House and a Socialist Republican President (Hoover) gave way to a far left President and Congress with absolutely no effective counter-balance in place. Although its hard to believe, it was left to a liberal Supreme Court to mitigate some of the Un-Constitutional Far Left policies passed by Congress. For those of you who do not know what happened back then that’s OK, you are about to see history repeat itself. Only this time the USA is in far worse shape than it was then. Perhaps our only salvation is our individual major corporations which, as they were back then, are in their most liquid positions since 1929. They will survive and hopefully help us weather the storm. It is most often true, especially when it comes to politics that “things must get a lot worse before they can get better.”

I APOLOGIZE if I am being too political. I don’t mean to offend anyone and I know that in writing this piece I will be getting a number of cancellations. But Government has a tremendous influence on our economy and financial markets and just cannot be ignored. I owe it to my loyal readers and to myself to always be upfront and honest, regardless of the consequences. If not, I would be no better than the Media and Wall Street analysts that I am continuously berating, who are more interested in keeping their jobs by not offending the powerful and let the little guy fend for himself.  I am not perfect by a long shot, but any mistakes I make will be honest ones. That is all I’m going to say for now. However, if enough of you email me that you all would like an in-depth analysis of the coming political situation and its economic consequence, I’ll make politics the focus of one of my future letters.

ENERGY

Why has the price of oil shot up so much in the past few months? Is it a, supply and demand issue as most believe? Or is it because of an out-of-control futures market driven by the proliferation of commodity index funds seeking protection against inflation, profit hungry, manipulative follow the leader hedge funds and rampant speculation, as everyone tries to get in on the (sure thing) rise in commodity prices? This is a very complex issue, with a lot of emotion attached to it.

Are institutional investors in the form of large commodity index funds the reason behind the current rise, not just in oil prices but in the prices of seemingly all commodities?  What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participants in the commodities futures markets: Institutional Investors. Specifically, these are Corporate and Government Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, University Endowments and other Institutional Investors. Collectively, these investors now account on average for a larger share of outstanding commodities futures contracts than any other market participant. Index Speculators, allocate a portion of their portfolios to "investments" in the commodities futures market, and behave very differently from the traditional speculators that were the usual players in this marketplace.  As a way to play the growing demand for commodities of all sorts from emerging markets, as a hedge against inflation, mainline investment consultants began to suggest to their clients that they get into the commodity market on a buy and hold basis, just like they do with stocks and bonds. In 2003, there was $13 billion invested in commodity index funds. By March of this year, that number had grown by more than 20 times that amount. For the first 52 trading days of the year, demand for commodity index funds grew by more than $55 billion, or more than $1 billion a day. There is a crucial distinction between Traditional Speculators and Index Speculators: Traditional Speculators provide liquidity by both buying and selling futures. Index Speculators buy futures and then roll their positions and buy calendar spreads. They never sell. Therefore, they consume liquidity and provide zero benefit to the futures markets. When working in concert, they drive prices higher and the higher prices go, the more money pours into their coffers. "Index Speculators” trading strategies amount to virtual hoarding via the commodities futures markets. Institutional Investors are buying up essential items that exist in limited quantities avoiding the exchanges “Position Limits” for the sole purpose of reaping speculative profits." And if playing follow the leader ends up in collusion to drive up prices, WELL? WARNING: Real Supply and Demand fluctuates and is influenced by price. High prices will sooner or later drive down Demand. When it does, watch out that the fireworks don’t burn you!

When it comes to Oil, there is a major disconnect between the New York Stock Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange. The NYSE is pricing in $75/bbl oil into the price of oil stocks, while the futures market is surging over $130, and there are calls from T. Boone Pickens for near-term $150 and even $200/bbl oil from other so called experts.  The stock market is telling us that oil, at least in futures terms, is in a bubble.

It’s been noticed that Iran is leasing tankers and using them for storage. At a cost of about $140,000 a week, that is expensive storage and it’s not just Iran that is doing that as there is a serious tanker shortage that is developing without any increases in shipping. Lease prices have soared in the past few weeks. It is clear there are a lot of speculators betting that oil is going to rise to $150 or higher and are willing to pay very high prices for keeping the oil on the seas waiting for higher prices. New York City, in the early '80s, had about 30 or so tankers just sitting, waiting for prices to continue to increase as it had been doing for some time. But the price had PEAKED and when they all tried to get into the harbor at the same time, of course they couldn't. It was the top of the market. Prices dropped, and the owners of the oil had to go to the futures market to hedge what they could. Almost everyone (except stock market investors) are convinced oil is going higher in the near term. Last week's rally to $130+ was partially due to short covering by the trade, which had sold production far into the future at much lower prices. They “Bit The Bullet” and took off their hedges.

Is it 1980 All Over Again?

As demand starts to fall, let's remember that the storage facilities for oil waiting to be refined are finite. If all those tankers end up looking for a home at the same time, even as demand for oil is slackening off, you will be shocked at how far and how fast the price of oil can drop.

Now, here is where it could get interesting. Oil is the biggest component of the commodity index funds. If oil drops and looks likely to go lower, then the massive buying of these funds we have seen in the past six months could dry up virtually overnight. It takes a ton of buying to make the price of something go up, but it doesn’t require any selling, it only takes a lack of buying to make it go down. And if there is net selling? Watch Out Below!

A REALITY CHECK

The rise in demand for oil from China in the past five years has been 920 million barrels of oil per year. Index demand for oil has risen by 848 million barrels, almost as much as another China.

I believe we could see a break, and a very violent one, in the near term for the price FOR oil as everyone heads for the exits at the same time. If it is simply index speculation - it will end in tears when the fundamentals finally catch up AND REALITY FINALLY SETS IN.

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE FOR AMERICA

History, experience and common sense tell me that the only way to solve a complex problem, like oil, is through a reliance on the Capitalist Free Market system. What free market you may question? Nonetheless, the Bible teaches that “you can’t change other people, you can only change yourself”. Suing Saudi Arabia and OPEC, taxing excess profits, picking and choosing winners and losers in technology, such as Ethanol will only make the situation worse and will not cause one more drop of oil to be produced. We have a large and complex problem and the only way to solve it is through a comprehensive plan that takes Short, Medium and Long Term solutions into account concentrating on Human Nature as the focal point of all solutions.

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS

Conservation: Start with a $0.50 or $1.00/gal. tax on gas. At the same time, we give a $2,000 a year rebate to all taxpayers earning under $100,000, making it revenue neutral to the poor and middle class. By so doing, we are using Supply and Demand to encourage conservation.  Use tax breaks and rebates to encourage people to use more energy efficient everything, from light bulbs to dishwashers to water heating units and finally to motor vehicles. Lowering thermostats is one sure way for the poor to keep some of that tax rebate. Car pooling and driving at lower speeds are also good and I’m sure most people can find other ways to save energy.

INCREASE OIL SUPPLIES

Open the most promising areas of our country to both on and off shore drilling. Had Bush’s first Energy Plan been passed 7 years ago, we would now be reaping the benefit in both lower prices and reduced trade deficits of 1,000,000 bls/day from ANWAR and who knows how much more would have been found by drilling in our own back yard by American companies instead of them drilling everywhere else in the world at a time when there is a shortage of drilling rigs. OPEN up offshore Florida, California, and both coasts as well as Alaska to exploration. If any of the respective states refuse to allow exploration, charge them an additional $1.00 /bbl tax to be paid by the states that refuse to allow drilling to the states that do allow drilling.

Stripper Wells should be encouraged; again through tax breaks, to bring 10’s of 1000’s of shut down wells back into production. Cutting their taxes in half will generate more oil and more tax revenues, rather than less. After all, no production means no tax revenue, all the way up the food (tax) chain. Every barrel not imported shrinks our trade deficit by $130.

COAL

We have the world’s largest coal reserves. It’s time we stropped discriminating against coal and started offering tax incentives to develop Clean Coal and Coal to Fuel conversion plants. We have the technology to do it and with encouragement, the technology will be continually improved. The Germans did it in WWII while being bombed round the clock.

TECHNOLOGY

Time for COMMON SENSE. It will take time to develop new technology and even if we had the hydrogen car today, it would take 20 years to replace America’s fleet of cars. How long would it take to refit our 200,000 service stations and install the hydrogen tanks to refuel the new cars? LET’S GET REAL - New Technology takes time to perfect and even more time to implement. Technology is part of our long term strategy it is not a short term solution and every politician that only talks technology is just blowing smoke and shifting the problem to the next election

There is more, but I think you get the general Idea.

We must STOP funding our enemies!

WE NEED TORT REFORM AND IT’S ABOUT TIME WE STOPPED LETTING A MINORITY OF EXTREME ENVIRONMENTALISTS DETERMINE OUR FUTURE.

INFLATION AND STATISTICS

On May 22nd, the day I started this missive, the Dow was down 227 points. Oil rose to $132. The dollar fell to $1.57 per Euro and Gold hit $928. And for the first time in a long while, Bonds fell too. For the last 10 years or more, when stocks fell, bonds would go up for a variety of reasons.  Investors anticipated that the FED would lower yields as the economy cooled, plus the flight to safety factor. But now, the bond market seems to be worried about something else. As you well know, I have long mistrusted statistics mostly because they are always looking in the rear view mirror and I especially distrust numbers coming from the Government. Regardless of the reported figures on Inflation and Unemployment, layoffs are rampant and ever increasing and prices are going up for nearly everything – milk, bread, gasoline, liquor and all other essentials.  For the United States, the official inflation numbers are the worst in 17 years...but the real numbers are even more alarming. Of course, the real numbers are never even mentioned. They are like the Black Sheep of the family that nobody ever discusses. In March, the raw data showed consumer prices rising at a 10% annual rate. But by the time the BLS got finished with them, they reported a CPI going up at an annual rate of only 3.6%. ‘Seasonal adjustments,’ they called it. Then, in April, when the raw data came in at a 7.2% annual inflation rate, they seasonally adjusted it down to only 2.4%, including reporting declines in food and energy. Both adjusted figures were greeted by the stock market with a sharp upward move. In the ten years to 2007, no seasonal adjustment has ever exceeded 0.3% plus or minus; INFLATION STATISTICS HAS NOW BECOME THE WORLDS THIRD BIG LIE..  If the raw March and April figures are adjusted by the average seasonal adjustments of the last decade, consumer price inflation in those two months probably averaged 7.4%. You can fool some of the people all the time, said Abraham Lincoln. But then again, he didn’t know any modern day economists or government statisticians. For some reason, stocks and bonds are being priced as if inflation was still under control. “You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” However I for one think that prices are rising a lot more than what most people think and that there’s a lot more inflation to come. Even the bond market is beginning to catch on. At long last – perhaps the bond vigilantes are finally waking up and so is the average Joe.

In ancient times, back in the ’70s when inflation rates rose, Bond buyers took a terrific beating. Then they got smart, strapped on their six guns and it was said the FEDs couldn’t get away with causing inflation anymore because the bond market wouldn’t let them. As soon as bond investors saw inflation coming, they would act like vigilantes – selling off their bonds and forcing up yields. Higher yields cooled off the economy and reduced inflation. By way of full disclosure, at least twice in the past 5 years I thought the Vigilantes had returned. But I was wrong - they all remained fast asleep or believed in the Plunge Protection Team. But like all great parties, even this one must come to an end.

As far as inflation is concerned, a number of newspapers actually went out and did a few studies and “The Results are ‘Stunning.” One Daily came up with an increase in consumer prices of over 12.5% while another came in at 15.6%. That, my friends, is serious inflation. And as you all know from previous missives, I suspect there’s a lot more coming.

A news story in the Financial Times tells us something very interesting: “The gap between input prices and what can be passed on to consumers is at its widest point in 20 years.” For example, Crude oil is 62% more expensive today than it was a year ago. But a can of motor oil, at the retail level, is up only 25.4%.  What does this mean? First, input prices have jumped so fast retail prices have not been able to keep up. It may also mean that retailers don’t think the raw output prices are permanent or that they can’t afford to pass them along without losing customers. It may also mean that commodity wholesale prices have gone up too far, too fast. One thing is certain, the gap can’t last. The retailers can’t buy oil 62% higher and sell it only 25% higher for long. Either the price of crude comes down or the price of retail petroleum products goes up.

There are two types of consumer price inflation: Wage-push Inflation and Cost-pull Inflation. The most familiar type of inflation comes when an economy heats up; companies need more labor, so workers demand more money. Employers meet the new wage demands and then raise prices to maintain profit margins. The Result: consumer price inflation.

The less familiar type of inflation happens when retail prices are pulled up by higher input costs. This is a very different kind of inflation because it provides consumers with no way to pay the higher prices. So far, we’ve seen very little increase in wages as job growth not only stagnates but layoffs steadily increase. As prices go up, consumers must cut back. This has the obvious effect of reducing demand and reducing price pressure. Just as wholesale prices work their way down to consumer prices, so does consumer resistance work its way back up to producers. The initial result: Profit Margins Get Squeezed.

It was presumed for a very long time that “if the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.”  However, maybe this time it really is different(?) because of “Decoupling.” A consumer slowdown in America would not keep the Chinese, India and Russian economies from slowing down. Result: Prices would still go up, even though the U.S. economy was in a slump. This would put Americans in a terrible position – where they were earning less money but their cost of living is still going up. Secondly, global prices are denominated in dollars and the FED is determined to keep Americans spending money, even if they don’t have any. My guess a year ago was that this flood of liquidity would WEAKEN THE DOLLAR and buoy up gold and commodities, but not as much in the countries with the strong currencies.

Many commodities seem to be in or near bubble territory. Oil, for example, is an important commodity, but it’s just a commodity. Barring a war, the relationship between supply and demand doesn’t change. Then how is it possible that the price should double in less than two years? T. Boone Pickens predicts $150, Goldman predicts $200. How could that happen? The only answer is the price is rising on fear, self preservation and speculation, not simply user supply and demand. Oil I’m sure is already in a bubble. Five years ago, there was only $13 billion invested in oil market indices. Now, there’s $500 billion. In the futures market, oil is usually sold short – as oil companies hedge future production. In 1990, only 13% of open interest was long by large traders. Today, 58% is long. Every Pension Fund, most Investors and Hedge Funds and large consumers are trying to protect themselves against rising Demand and Inflation. Free Markets work. If only Congress would get out of the way and stop trying to find Scapegoats. When prices go up, after a lag, new supply is found and Demand drops. Oil companies are spending four times as much money on exploration and drilling today as they did eight years ago. The Media is certainly advertising why oil may go higher – a lot higher. But markets are markets and bubbles are bubbles. And there’s two things you can always count on – Supply and Demand eventually have their say and bubbles always blow-up. Look for oil to blow-off perhaps by hitting $150. Then watch out below!

THE POSSIBILITY OF A FINANCIAL COLLAPSE

The dollar’s slump should be a tremendous and immediate concern: While the Dollar has been slipping only gradually in the recent past, the rate of decline has been picking up speed at an alarming rate. A Dollar crash will have disastrous implications not only for the USA, but for global financial markets as well. Don’t be fooled by the Dollars recent strength. At the end of 2001, the Euro was worth $ 0.8915, but it has been on a steady upward march since then as the Euro hit a recent high of $1.57 and shows every indication of continuing its climb.  How do all of those surplus dollar countries play into this falling dollar picture? Alan Greenspan posed that, in economics, the sum of all surpluses equals the sum of all deficits. When a surplus country stops investing its dollar surplus in U.S. denominated assets, its currency will increase against the Dollar. This realization has serious implications. Not only does the Dollar continue to fall against other currencies; as it does so, it accelerates the undesirability of pegging currencies to U.S. currency by their investing in US Treasury Bonds and other US debt. In other words, it becomes less and less viable for foreign investors and central banks to fund an ever growing U.S. debt. Should the US Dollar lose its reserve status, the result would be devastating to the world and especially to the USA. The resulting financial collapse would result in Depression that would make the 1930’s Depression look like just a garden party – the average person was a lot more self sufficient back then.

This is not just a problem for the U.S. Consumer and Government debt trends. We may be the addicts, but we have codependents and Enablers around the world. Just as the U.S. consumer is addicted to spending excesses, foreign exporters have become addicted to selling goods to Americans. Their phenomenal Growth rates, especially in creating jobs, depend on it.  So, the problem is with sellers as well as buyers. The governments in those other markets are as concerned about the U.S. Dollar’s fall as Americans are (or should be). Why? The fall of a Dollar is the same thing as a rise in other currencies. So the competitiveness of the foreign export economy is damaged more and more as their own currencies increase in value. Just as a falling Dollar hurts the buyer (Americans), a rising currency hurts the seller (foreign economies) to the same degree.

The United States is only one side of the problem. As the consumer, our dollars have tremendous influence throughout the world, if only because so many central banks  have pegged their currency and employment growth rates to the Dollar –  at the same time many exporting nations are seeing their currencies going up in value, making it untenable to continue exporting at the same rates as in the past. So we have, through trillions of dollars of debt accumulation, created a de facto dollar standard in much of the world economy. The debt is based, however, on a worldwide bubble economy, perhaps the biggest bubble in world history. The whole theory behind this comprehensive “bubblization”, referring to the combination of federal deficit, trade, mortgage, housing, dollar, and credit bubbles all working together, has grown out of the Keynesian economic theories of the 30’s. Although Mr. Greenspan was a conservative, Ayn Rand disciple, somehow he became the chief culprit behind the Keynesian revolution that spending is good, more spending is better, the most spending is best, and savings is a verboten dirty word. BUT we can’t pin the whole thing on him. Like the U.S. consumer, he had enablers and codependents everywhere. His helpers include governments and an array of bankers, economists, corporate executives, and investors – all buying into the Greenspan version of continuous re-liquefaction of the U.S. economy and how it just might keep on working forever. Now along comes Mr. Bernanke, who puts himself out there as the leading economic forecaster and wise man, and contends like Greenspan before him, that bubbles can’t be recognized until after they burst. That’s like saying you can’t say that your house is on fire just because smoke is billowing out from all the windows; you have to wait until it bursts into flames. The truth is bubbles are easily recognizable well in advance of bursting, even though we cannot know exactly when they will burst. The dollar bubble is going to burst, and that is inevitable. The effects on the economy of that bust are going to be Devastating. As long as investors, consumers, and business managers continue to base their financial decisions on assets of inflated and unrealistic value (such as bailing out homeowners and mortgage holders) we are denying this inevitable outcome. The more we depend on those inflated values, the more damage we will suffer when the bubble finally bursts. What we have already witnessed in the Sub-prime debacle is just the beginning and it will spread to Alt-A, Prime, Credit Cards, Auto Loans, Student loans, Commercial Real Estate and all the way down the line including Pvt. Equity Takeovers and Stock Buy Backs made with borrowed money.

It seems everyone refuses to learn the lessons of the past. For example, Japan after its crash in 1990, lowered its rates to near zero, but that hasn’t worked. Their economy and real estate markets have been mired in recession/depression for more than 17 years. Does anyone think that they labor under a different set of economic principles than we do? Why does anyone think that doing more of what got us into trouble in the first place (Easy Credit, Excessively Low Interest Rates and Printing Money) will solve the problem? Is that not the definition of insanity? In the case of Japan’s burst bubble, its pattern was somewhat different from the U.S pattern of today, but there are many lessons to be learnt, if we would only look. Japan’s deficit budget spending went into infrastructure and business investment, both of which expand the country’s productivity and trade profits. Spending on business equipment plants, commercial buildings, and other production based investment instead of consumption spending had specific positive effects (mostly productivity improvements): When Japan’s economy slowed down, it merely came to a halt and because of continuous government mismanagement of the economy has remained chronically slow ever since. In comparison, U.S. deficit spending is overwhelmingly going into consumer spending with very little infrastructure, business investment or consumer savings to offset that trend. Thus, the U.S. trend in GDP is led by consumption and not by investment. So the use of deficit spending has everything to do with the consequences of deficits, and ultimately with the effect of a dollar crash. Unlike Japan’s economy, which merely flattened out as a consequence of deficit spending, the U.S. economy is likely to see a more devastating change in the entire economic landscape – with the accompanying price inflation, we have to expect an eventual RECESSION followed by DEPRESSION. Putting one’s head in the sand will not change these facts, but will only make the ending worse.

THE STOCK MARKET:  WHERE TO NOW?

I think it may be time to trust the calendar signal this year in the hope that the traditional summer rally could be around the corner and generate that high degree of optimism, sufficient to give us that last ditch clear signal that would trigger that major SELL SIGNAL that I have been expecting. Or, if we don’t get that major SELL signal and the sell-off only lasts into the traditional end-of-year surge based on election celebrations, then January/February 2009 will be the perfect time for the market to begin its major crash.

NYSE margin debt has averaged 1.1% of market capitalization.  Until recently, the highest reading was 1.8% in 1987, which is coincidentally, the year of the second largest stock market crash in history.  While leverage can work magic on the upside, it is a two bladed sword. At the end of 2007, NYSE margin debt was 2.1% of market capitalization, the highest since 1929.  Through March, margin debt has fallen by $46.5 billion. If margin debt, as a percentage of market cap, now falls significantly to somewhere between 1.2% to 1.5%, the resulting contraction in demand will equate to another $150 billion or more in outflows.  While it may be impossible to quantify with any precision what the effect of a contraction in margin will have, I believe it greatly increases the odds of my Bear Market forecast.

GOLD

CAUSATION : I have often spoken to you in the past on how Gold is not related to OIL, but is in a market unto itself. There is no better example of that fact than the behavior of Gold and Oil over the last few months. What all that means is that as Gold consolidates and builds its base, exactly as I have been expecting, getting ready to explode past $1,030 on its way to $1425 (this year), Oil is in a Bubble phase looking for a reason to Blow-off. Unfortunately, the one thing I cannot do is predict the time and price of a blow-off top. However, it is my experienced guess that when Oil blows, it will NOT take Gold down with it. Instead, a good portion of the $100’s of billions invested in Oil and commodity indexes will be scrambling to get into Gold, LOOKING FOR A HOME in the wake of the currency upheavals that will be caused by the commodity upheavals. That kind of money pouring into Gold will make the Oil play look like a penny anti poker game.

I was the first to warn you of the coming upheavals in the Real Estate and Sub-prime markets way back in Dec. 2005. I was also the first to warn you that it will not be contained, but will spread throughout the financial community. Although I am not a Gold Bug, I was the first and probably the only one who was looking for $1,000 Gold by the end of 2007, with a long term projection of $2,500 to $5,000 over MY EXPECTED 16 year Bull Market for Gold (which began in 1999).

NOTHING HAS CHANGED

Continue to buy GOLD and Silver and their stocks on weakness. DO NOT TRADE. Not only will you not be able to get back in, but the short term CAPITAL GAINS taxes will more than eat up any profit you might make even if you are successful in getting back in. Gold might even pull back to as low as $826, but I repeat “might” and if it does, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. BUY - it will be your last chance to buy Gold cheap before it explodes past $1030 on its way to $1,425 as the election results begin to sink in.

If you think I am blunt, well I am. I speak plainly and I don’t hedge and if you can find another Letter with a better track record than mine, then you better subscribe to that one as well. By the way, please let me know who that is so I can subscribe too. In the meantime, continue to Ride The Golden Bull, it’s the best ride you will ever be on. But remember the best rides have their DIPS: Isn’t that what makes the ride so exciting? Just making money is great, but it’s boring.

BE HAPPY, DON”T WORRY and just continue to accumulate Gold.

GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS

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Aubie Baltin  CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.
2078 Bonisle Circle
Palm Beach Gardens FL.  33418
[email protected]
561-840-9767