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Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

It's time once again for our annual stock market/gold mining forecast for the coming year.

Strong Dollar is Hurtling the Global Economy Toward Oblivion

Immediate long-side trading . . . commenced upon traders post-Christmas holiday return; very much as expected, given the comparatively abbreviated trading week we have to work with.

The dollar gold bullion price during the last two weeks resumed its upward trend, which began last April, closing on Friday at $278 an ounce, 1.4 % above our last Update.

So, the Argentinean economy has collapsed and social and financial chaos reigns.

I find my mind is becoming more elastic these days, as in the silly putty toy of my youth. So much insanity to write about; so much insanity unfolding around me.

The recent Argentine debt fiasco is but a small sample of a problem that will spread rapidly in 2002 and in coming years to countries plagued by debt and unsound currencies, but especially those countries who refuse to tow the line

South Africa is the richest gold bearing region in the world and home to some recently successful winners among the gold crowd.

Are investors being 'lured' into the markets . . . in the wake of a colossal move up from the lows of September; or is this really a market anticipating the post-recession conditions?

With the changing of a New Year come the changing of the cycles, and based on current cycle configurations Year 2002 will visit Wall Street with unprecedented devastation and financial chaos.

Anyone out there old enough to remember the Maginot Line? The Maginot line, was a long fortress built by the French to keep the Nazis out.

Twenty years ago this month I traveled through the snows to Hillsdale College in Michigan to give a talk in the Ludwig von Mises Lecture Series, my topic being "A Supply-Side Gold Standard." A few months earlier, I had only a vague

Congressman Ron Paul, M.D. says U.S. Treasury confiscation of gold would be illegal.

Durban Deep has not disappointed the faithful investor, soaring from its $1.10 pivot last week to close near a two-month high at $1.35.

A secondary reaction . .

What it took Japan 7 years to do, Greenspan and his private, mostly European owned, Federal Reserve Central Bank, has done in a year. He has cut the interest rate for the 11th time in a year, with more to come, it is rumored.

The American delusion over stocks continues. It seems impossible to investors, most of whom have never seen a secular bear market, that we could be in the early stages of a very serious 1970's decline.

The gold bullion price tested its November lows of $272 an ounce last week and closed on Friday at $273.90 an ounce. It is up 6.6 % from its April low of $255 an ounce.

Prior to Wednesday's 'explosion' . .

No, not December 7th. More than likely, that was a day of fulfillment, a time anxiously anticipated. The day I refer to is next January 1, when three hundred million Europeans will be conquered by the euro.

You have to give Mr. Magoo credit for persistence, if not ethics or brains. Here is a man who is convinced that low interest rates will save the economy-period.

A basic law of physics, says that for every action, there will be a re-action, and it is all too true with the stock market.

The gold market, in true-to-form counter-cyclical fashion, is trading opposite the equities market and the U.S. dollar, and will likely test the lows near $270 over the next several days.

Interesting that the bond market got roughed up pretty well last week after having rallied sharply for the past several weeks.

INTRODUCTION

As in a previous piece, I must first make a disclaimer. I deal in bullion coins, not numismatics. There are two sides to every question…or more.

Since September, the Dow Jones industrial average has gained 15% as the bulls rushed out to snap up stocks at bargain prices.

PART I



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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In 1934 President Franklin Delano Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold to $35 per ounce.

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