Gold Editorials & Commentary

GLD - sell signal this week.

With less than three months left until the end of the year, let's do a quick recap. Silver may not be as shiny as gold, but it has been no pushover to the yellow metal.

Let's look at the stock market first, with a chart of the Dow Jones' monster head and shoulders chart. I first posted this chart in the summer of 2011 with the Dow Jones's over 12,500.

Bill Gross is one of the most recognizable names in the investment world. He is the founder and co-chief investment officer at bond fund giant PIMCO.

After surging sharply in August and early September, gold stocks have been consolidating sideways ever since. Naturally this loss of momentum has sapped the nascent trader enthusiasm for this sector.

Over the years we have read many times that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has rapidly inflated the supply of Yen.

A month ago, I presented the case for why Fed Chairman Bernanke would have strong motivation to launch another round of quantitative easing (QE) before the election. In short, it would save him his job.

It's been a great break from working nearly 7 days a week down to 5 1/2 or so. But I'm back!

What accounts for gold's strong performance since the initial rebound in July? That's the question that many analysts are (belatedly) trying to answer.

Over the past year we have had some really interesting things unfold in the market.

Tonight I want to show you my long term price objective for this next impulse leg higher for gold.This would be of the intermediate term variety. There are two ways I measure for price objectives. The first one is what I call the breakout to breakout method.

After the Federal Reserve launched QE3 last month, investors and speculators are growing excited about its future impact on gold and silver. Though the Fed's QE3 campaign started out relatively small, its open-ended nature is utterly unprecedented.

Over the past few months I have been writing cautionary articles regarding the gold price.

Action in the Precious Metals markets yesterday was VERY bearish and confirms our suspicion that an intermediate top may be forming that could lead to a brutal correction.

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.

GLD - on buy signal.

SLV - sell signal this week.

Last week was pivotal for equities as well as a reminder that the 3 ½ year-old recovery is still alive.

We are at the point in the paper currency cycle where for the price of Gold it is risk off, Fed management out of the way, and time for Gold to go into free-rise to start to devalue the huge debts in earnest and to balance the budget.

History shows that one cannot "manipulate" a primary trend (and maybe not even a secondary trend)

The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to contaminate the financial body until it responds favorably was the last straw in my book. Witness a declaration of permanent QE and hyper monetary inflation of the most virulent strain, unsterilized.

Some competent analysts claim the United States and Western nations are stuck in the eye of the hurricane. Maybe so, but the internal stresses are so great that they will move beyond the eye into a zone of clearly apparent destruction soon.

We've speculated in TSI commentaries that unwavering devotion to bad economic theory (a type of stupidity) is the most likely reason for the Fed's introduction of a new inflation program at this time.

In this weekend report I would like to show you some gold ratio charts that  compare gold to commodities or indexes. Ratio charts are a good way to see how a stock or index is moving relative to another stock or index.

A leading precious metals consultancy, Thomson Reuters GFMS, has forecast that investors will buy record amounts of gold in the remainder of 2012. GFMS produces the benchmark supply and demand statistics for the gold market.

There was plenty of hoopla last week. The Federal Reserve's announcement Thursday of a third round of quantitative easing sent investors scrambling for gold and silver.

GLD - on buy signal.

Silver has certainly enjoyed an impressive run of late, catapulting nearly a third higher since mid-summer. Because this surge looks nearly vertical on short-term charts, some traders are getting nervous about this rally's staying power.

An Appropriate Quote

The great H.L. Mencken wrote:

The last several weeks have really changed the look of the HUI and the precious metals complex in general. In this report I would like to examine the HUI going back to the October 2008 bottom to the present.