Gold Editorials & Commentary

"Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good.

When the contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted, and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY!!!

The meltdown in the subprime mortgage market is inexorably spreading throughout the U.S. economy. The first shoe dropped in February, when scores of mortgage originators went bust amid rising defaults and tightening lending standards.

Every ten years or so, we hear the ardent cry of "this time it's different" and/or "we have now entered another new paradigm that will lead to UP, UP and away." In the late 60's, it was The Nifty 50's.

$HUI - is on buy signal.

We have recently maintained a neutral/bearish stance on gold, which was not unreasonable given the way the earlier advance had petered out and been followed by weakness resulting in the failure of a long-term uptrend line that signaled a change of intermediate

"...What people don't fully appreciate is the extent to which our financial system has geared up over the last twenty years to finance the worldwide residential housing boom..."

Now that yields on ten-year Treasuries have cracked through 5%, on their way to infinity and beyond, many on Wall Street are wondering how high rates must go before bonds begin to draw investors away from stocks.

The cancer that is mortgage bonds does not linger in isolation. Everything in the bond world is connected to almost everything in the bond world, at least within the US sphere of speculative madness.

Tuesday afternoon, after hours, the phone rang, and an 82 year old man said that someone had told him to call me. He is very wealthy, and has gobs of money in CD/s and actual cash on hand. At least he says so, and he does talk like it.

The rising trendline on the weekly $XAU chart below (courtesy Bigcharts.com) has ten points of contact. It is therefore highly significant

A Fire Alarm went off in the markets last week.

Like many before him, Sir Isaac Newton was fascinated by Gold. Indeed, since time immemorial most of humanity seems to have been attracted by its glitter. Newton's reason, however, was different.

At a commercial real estate conference earlier this week, Alan Greenspan downplayed concerns that the Chinese might sell their significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

In late March, an article pointed out the massive powerful cross currents in the USTreasury bond world. We are seeing the forces described finally at work. The aftermath has generated more questions than answers.

As a kid, I always loved to play Monopoly. It's great game for kids to learn, as it teaches basic economics very nicely. I used to play a lot with my cousin Keith, and we used a term when we had to mortgage properties to pay off our opponent.

In part 1 of this article I presented a simple transformation for daily closing data that produces a series suitable for the estimation of day to day correlation of two different markets, instruments.

The chart below - courtesy Decisionpoint.com - says it all:

By tripling the tax on brokerage transactions, the Chinese government succeeded, at least temporarily, in restraining the surging Chinese stock market. But my expectation is that the correction will be short-lived.

An old expression is often used. Most people remain unaware of its origin. "Joe is three sheets to the wind!" means Joe is stinking drunk, smashed, plastered, intoxicated, inebriated, and who know? he might soon go meet Ralph out back (i.e. vomit).

"Well, look how low it's gone. I'm scared it will go down further." Or, "Jeez, it's just sitting there, isn't it?" For crying out loud, don't be ridiculous! Exactly one year ago…one year back, to the day I am writing this, gold was $607, and silver $11.36.

One of the reasons that big money managers, and the world's wealthiest people, don't understand gold, and silver, is that human beings, even very, very smart people, just do not understand very large numbers, nor relative size.

A fresh buy signal in the gold sector this week.

As a steady stream of bad U.S. economic news accumulates, one wonders when the stock market will finally take notice.

Some weeks ago, this analyst published an article which drew attention to the relationship of gold shares to the gold price.

Introduction. While doing research in the Library of the University of Chicago in the early 1980's I came across the unfinished manuscript of a book with the title: The Dollar: An Agonizing Reappraisal.

The mark of intelligence is the ability to change one's mind if facts demand it. I think I am intelligent, and what I am about to write, will outrage a lot of you, but I have given this a lot of thought, and as a result believe it to be true.

Don't ever confuse being in a Bull Market with Brains; it is easy to look smart in the midst of a Bull Market when one stupid theory after another comes out and is splashed all over the front pages as the Media leads the cheerleaders, such as the professor who