The Folly We Dare Not Speak Of Regarding Gold

For the last four years, much has been written about gold by those who present themselves as “in the know” or as an “expert.”  But, what has been written has not approached the darkness within the market, upon which we must finally shed some light.

If one does not come to certain realizations about this market, then one will likely set themselves up to maintain on the wrong side of the market, as in 2011, when an impending major turn in the market is upon us. So, remember that which was originally said by George Santayana:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

First, if you listened to those “in the know,” gold was supposed to have been over $2,000 long ago.  Yet, gold has clearly not followed their script.  Not much has been made of such folly, other than “it must be because of manipulation.”  

It seems en vogue now to ignore the biggest missed market call in any market over the last 5 years, which was made by these “experts.”  (The second biggest miss was also made by these same “experts,” who were calling for a dollar collapse).  This seems to be the dark topic no one wants to address, as I am sure they simply hope that everyone will eventually forget.  But, I can assure you that there are many reading this article who have been cut to the bone after following the “experts” who were passionately chanting “higher, higher” just as the market was topping, as they were irresponsibly inducing the masses to continually “buy, buy, buy.” 

Second, gold fundamentals have supposedly been pointing higher forever.  Yet, gold has clearly not followed fundamentals.  To that point, you can hear the crickets in the background due to the silence from the lack of any real explanation.

Third, I can no longer tally how many bottom calls have been made in this market for the last 4 years.  But, gold has continued lower and lower.  And, if you had been reading what has been written towards the end of 2015, most had begun to view gold as “certainly” dropping below $1,000.  Will they be left behind as they were at the other end of the market in 2011?

Fourth, I can now assure you that once this rally confirms the resumption of the bull market, everyone and their mother will have “called it,” and claim that they knew it all along. All the “experts” will tout their expertise once again and these broken clocks will again be screaming “higher” in unison.

It will be very easy to join the gold bandwagon once a long term bottom has been confirmed.  But, will you have learned anything from the experience over the last four years or will you find yourself in a similar position a few years from now?

For the last 4+ years, since we correctly called the top in the metals market in 2011 (along with calling for a multi-year bull market in the US dollar), I have been publishing articles which have kept those who were willing to listen on the correct side of the market.  While I was clearly not 100% correct on all my market calls, back in 2013, we began to focus upon the region at which we have recently bottomed in metals and miners.  Even though no one believed the market would reach levels this low at the time we set them as our primary targets in 2013, we have clearly now met all our long term targets for this correction.

In providing my analysis, I have often been quite adamant about my analysis methodology and the resulting conclusions.  I have stood my ground and have not been swayed by all the fundamental arguments thrown my way.  I have attempted to convince those willing to listen regarding the direction of the market.  And, often, I have been the target of much anger from those who did not want to hear the market was heading lower.

But, as Richard Nixon said after an election loss, you “won't have Avi Gilburt to kick around anymore.”  You see, once we are able to confirm that the metals market has moved back into a bullish phase, most everyone will be on the same page.  At that point, we will all be looking up, as I will be joining most everyone else who have, sadly, been looking up the entire time we were going down over the last 4 years. So, I will not likely have anyone who will be arguing with me or disagreeing with my directional perspective, once we have confirmed the long term bull market has resumed.  And, in fact, I will likely be even more bullish in my targeting than many of you.   But, will all our views be the same?  Not really.

You see, to me, investing in gold is not a religion. Investing in gold is definitely not about fundamentals. And, investing in gold is not about believing in the collapse of society as we know it.  To me, investing in gold is about being on the right side of the market, whether the market is going up or going down.  My desire is to profit on both sides of a market, as every market has periods of progression and regression.

I am truly agnostic when it comes to a “belief” in this market.  I am neither bull nor bear.  Rather, I am an investor seeking to increase my wealth, and I have used my methodology successfully to that end over the last 4 years, during which time I have also been publicizing my market analysis. 

So, as the market potentially heads into the next phase of the metals bull market (for which we are still seeking confirmation), I will be moving into the background, and transforming into a kinder, gentler analyst.  For once we have confirmation that the bull market has returned, you will have a myriad of articles telling you to look up, no different than the last 4+ years. 

But, when it’s time to look down again, “who ya gonna call?” And, will you even know when the time has come to pick up the phone?